Tonight at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, the games elite will face off in the 83th annual MLB All-Star game. Since it’s inception in 1933, the National League has a slight lead in the midsummer classic with a 42-38 record, including victories the past two summers. However, prior to this abbreviated winning streak the American League had won twelve consecutive matchups — discluding the infamous tie of 2002, of course.
For fans, this game offers some of the sports greatest players regardless of whether their careers are winding down (like future hall of famers Chipper Jones and Derek Jeter) or just getting started (like rookie phenoms Bryce Harper and Mike Trout). But where is the value for sports bettors?
The table below — using line data from Pinnacle — shows the line movement and public betting data for the past seven All-Star games.
|Year/Location||Opening AL Line||Closing AL Line||AL Betting %||Opening Total||Closing Total||Over %||Final Score|
|2009/St. Louis||-110||+100||36%||9.5||9||47%||4-3 AL|
|2008/NY (AL)||-138||-142||57%||10||10||42%||4-3 AL|
|2007/San Fran||-124||-116||54%||10||9.5||60%||5-4 AL|
What immediately jumps out is the percentage of public bets taking the over in tonight’s matchup. It is commonplace in baseball (or any sport for that matter) that bettors pound the over, but that has not been a profitable play in recent All-Star game history. In fact, the under has hit in each of the past six All-Star games, yet three out of every four bets believes there will be at least nine runs scored tonight. Considering runs have been down since the league cracked down on performance enhancing drugs, and dominant hurlers Justin Verlander (9-5, 2.58 ERA) and Matt Cain (9-3, 2.62 ERA) will be taking the mound for their respective teams, it’s easy to find value on the under. In fact, a smart money move was triggered at Pinnacle (120-91, +20.46 units) on the under at 8.5.
It’s also interesting to see that the American League has opened as a favorite every year except for last season (2011) in Arizona, where the National League was a slight favorite. Also noteworthy is the public betting on the moneyline for tonight’s game. Right now, a staggering 72% of ML wagers are taking the hosting AL squad. This lopsided betting has shifted the line 12 points at Pinnacle, which may have created some value on the National League.
These betting percentages are subject to change, so make sure to check your live odds page prior to first pitch.
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