2016 MLB MVP Odds
Back in early March, the prominent offshore sportsbook BetOnline posted odds for the 2016 MLB Most Valuable Player Award, which is given annually to one outstanding player in the American League (AL) and one in the National League (NL). Although there are no concrete criteria for the term “most valuable,” the award has historically been bestowed upon an élite offensive player from a playoff team. Several weeks later, Bovada posted their own MVP odds.
Last season Toronto’s Josh Donaldson (+1600) and Washington’s Bryce Harper (+1600) were the winners in their respective leagues. Mike Trout, who finished second in AL MVP voting, had opened the season as clear front-runner (+100). Andrew McCutchen, who finished fifth in NL MVP voting, had opened the season as a slight favorite (+400) over Giancarlo Stanton (+450).
The table below displays the past six MVP winners in each league along with their preseason odds.
Year | AL Winner | Odds | NL Winner | Odds |
---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | Mike Trout | +150 | Kris Bryant | +900 |
2015 | Josh Donaldson | +1600 | Bryce Harper | +1600 |
2014 | Mike Trout | +500 | Clayton Kershaw | +2000 |
2013 | Miguel Cabrera | +700 | Andrew McCutchen | +1500 |
2012 | Miguel Cabrera | +900 | Buster Posey | +2500 |
2011 | Justin Verlander | +7500 | Ryan Braun | +800 |
2010 | Josh Hamilton | +10000 | Joey Votto | +5000 |
This season Bryce Harper (+200) opened as the favorite to be the first back-to-back National League MVP since Albert Pujols (2008-2009). In the American League, Mike Trout (+150 at BetOnline, +225 at Bovada) was listed as the preseason favorite while Josh Donaldson had the second best odds (+450 at BetOnline, +400 at Bovada) of repeating as AL MVP.
On May 15th, the Las Vegas-based Westgate Superbook posted updated MVP odds. Bryce Harper and Nolan Arenado (+275) were listed as the favorites in the National League while Manny Machado (+200) is the front-runner in the American League. Since that time they have posted updated odds every two weeks.
When Bovada posted updated their MVP odds two weeks later, Clayton Kershaw (+300) was listed as the favorite in the National League. This was especially interesting since the 3-time Cy Young winner hadn’t previously been listed as an option. In the American League, several members of the Boston Red Sox saw their odds climb including Xander Bogaerts (+900), David Ortiz (+1200) and Jackie Bradley Jr (+1200). The fact that Mookie Betts was omitted seems like an oversight.
Although Bovada hasn’t updated their MVP odds in the past weeks, the Westgate Superbook updated their MVP odds on June 13th with Mookie Betts (+700) trailing only Manny Machado (+300) and Robinson Cano (+350). In the National League, Nolan Arenado (+275) is the favorite despite the Rockies losing record. Two weeks later both players were still listed as the front-runners with Jose Altuve (+2000 to +400) and Clayton Kershaw (+600 to +300) now nipping on their heels.
On August 15, Daniel Murphy (+100) and Jose Altuve (+125) emerged as the favorites in their respective leagues. These two players have a lot in common as they’re both second baseman who lead their league in hitting. When the odds were updated one week later, Altuve was still listed as the AL MVP favorite but Kris Bryant (+100) leapfrogged Murphy (+110) as the NL MVP favorite.
In the most recent update from the Westgate Superbook, Kris Bryant saw his odds of winning the NL MVP improve from +100 to -225, however, there was a major shakeup in the AL. Mookie Betts odds moved from +140 to -125, making him the new front-runner. That development likely shocked anybody who values advanced statistics, since Betts’ on-base percentage (.361) ranks well behind both Donaldson (.407) and Altuve (.414).
The tables below compares the preseason MVP odds at BetOnline and Bovada with the latest odds from both offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks. These odds will be updated throughout the season as new information becomes available.
NL MVP Odds
Player (Team) | Westgate (8/29) | Westgate (8/22) | Westgate (8/15) | Westgate (8/8) | Westgate (7/11) | Westgate (6/27) | Westgate (6/13) | Bovada (6/1) | Westgate (5/16) | Bovada (3/22) | BetOnline (3/8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kris Bryant (CHC) | -225 | EVEN | +200 | +225 | +200 | +400 | +500 | +900 | +1000 | +900 | +900 |
Daniel Murphy (WAS) | +140 | +110 | EVEN | +120 | +400 | +800 | +600 | +325 | +5000 | N/A | N/A |
Nolan Arenado (COL) | +1200 | +1800 | +800 | +550 | +350 | +250 | +300 | +900 | +275 | +2000 | +2500 |
Anthony Rizzo (CHC) | +1800 | +400 | +275 | +250 | +400 | +700 | +600 | +3300 | +300 | +1400 | +1200 |
Corey Seager (LAD) | +8000 | +10000 | +4000 | +8000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 | N/A |
Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) | +30000 | +10000 | +30000 | +30000 | +1000 | +1200 | +700 | +900 | +500 | +2500 | +2000 |
Bryce Harper (WSH) | +50000 | +50000 | +30000 | +30000 | +1000 | +700 | +500 | +500 | +275 | +200 | +200 |
Buster Posey (SF) | +100000 | +50000 | +30000 | +20000 | +10000 | +8000 | +10000 | N/A | +20000 | +1200 | +1200 |
Carlos Gonzalez (COL) | +100000 | +50000 | +30000 | +8000 | +10000 | +20000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | N/A |
Matt Carpenter (STL) | +100000 | +50000 | +50000 | +30000 | +50000 | +10000 | +6000 | N/A | +20000 | +6600 | +4000 |
Ben Zobrist (CHC) | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +50000 | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +900 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI) | +100000 | +50000 | +30000 | +20000 | +8000 | +8000 | +5000 | N/A | +5000 | +750 | +500 |
Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | +200000 | +100000 | +50000 | +50000 | +2000 | +300 | +600 | +300 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Ryan Braun (MIL) | +500000 | +500000 | +300000 | +100000 | +30000 | +30000 | +30000 | N/A | +10000 | +5000 | N/A |
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | +500000 | +500000 | +300000 | +100000 | +30000 | +10000 | +2500 | N/A | +3000 | +700 | +500 |
Matt Kemp (SD) | +500000 | +500000 | +100000 | +100000 | +30000 | +30000 | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | N/A | N/A |
A.J. Pollock (ARI) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2000 | +4000 |
Jason Heyward (CHC) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 |
Trevor Story (COL) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | N/A | +5000 | N/A | N/A |
Gregory Polanco (PIT) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Joey Votto (CIN) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1400 | +2000 |
Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +8000 | +8000 | +4000 | N/A | +1000 | +600 | +650 |
Hunter Pence (SF) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +20000 | N/A | N/A |
Anthony Rendon (WSH) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +4000 | +5000 |
Yasiel Puig (LAD) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +4000 |
Starling Marte (PIT) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1400 | N/A | +5000 | +4000 |
Matt Holiday (STL) | N/A | N/A | N/A | +100000 | +30000 | +20000 | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | N/A | N/A |
AL MVP Odds
Player (Team) | Westgate (8/29) | Westgate (8/22) | Westgate (8/15) | Westgate (8/8) | Westgate (7/11) | Westgate (6/27) | Westgate (6/13) | Bovada (6/1) | Westgate (5/16) | Bovada (3/22) | BetOnline (3/8) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mookie Betts (BOS) | -125 | +140 | +300 | +700 | +1000 | +1000 | +700 | N/A | +5000 | +2800 | +900 |
Jose Altuve (HOU) | +160 | +125 | +125 | +160 | +400 | +400 | +2000 | +900 | +1500 | +2500 | +2500 |
Robinson Cano (SEA) | +500 | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 | +600 | +400 | +350 | +700 | +300 | +2500 | +4000 |
Josh Donaldson (TOR) | +800 | +2000 | +1200 | +700 | +800 | +2500 | +2500 | +1200 | +1500 | +400 | +450 |
Manny Machado (BAL) | +2500 | +1500 | +800 | +450 | +400 | +300 | +300 | +300 | +200 | +700 | +550 |
David Ortiz (BOS) | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 | +800 | +1500 | +2000 | +1200 | +1200 | +1500 | +10000 | N/A |
Mark Trumbo (BAL) | +4000 | +3000 | +2500 | +2500 | +800 | +1500 | +1500 | N/A | +4000 | N/A | N/A |
Edwin Encarnacion (TOR) | +4000 | +1200 | +1200 | +1800 | +2000 | +2000 | +3000 | N/A | +4000 | +4000 | +5000 |
Mike Trout (LAA) | +4000 | +3000 | +2500 | +1200 | +1200 | +1200 | +1000 | +300 | +800 | +225 | +150 |
Miguel Cabrera (DET) | +4000 | +2500 | +1200 | +1500 | +6000 | +6000 | +4000 | +1000 | +6000 | +1200 | +800 |
Nelson Cruz (SEA) | +10000 | +4000 | +3000 | +6000 | +6000 | +10000 | +8000 | +1200 | N/A | +5000 | +5000 |
Adrian Beltre (TEX) | +30000 | +30000 | +50000 | +30000 | +20000 | +10000 | +5000 | N/A | +5000 | +3300 | +3300 |
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) | +50000 | +30000 | +6000 | +4000 | +1500 | +1500 | +1500 | +900 | +4000 | N/A | N/A |
George Springer (HOU) | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +6000 | +3000 | +2000 | +2000 | N/A | +4000 | N/A | N/A |
Carlos Correa (HOU) | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | +6000 | +3000 | +5000 | +10000 | N/A | +6000 | +3300 | +1600 |
Eric Hosmer (KC) | +100000 | +30000 | +100000 | +50000 | +6000 | +4000 | +2000 | +1800 | +2500 | +6600 | N/A |
Chris Davis (BAL) | +100000 | +100000 | +100000 | +30000 | +6000 | +8000 | +5000 | N/A | +3000 | +2500 | +3300 |
Dustin Pedroia (BOS) | +300000 | +30000 | +200000 | +100000 | +50000 | +20000 | +10000 | N/A | +4000 | N/A | N/A |
Evan Longoria (TB) | +300000 | +30000 | +200000 | +100000 | +50000 | +20000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Todd Frazier (CWS) | +300000 | +100000 | +50000 | +50000 | +8000 | +3000 | +2000 | N/A | +1500 | +4000 | +4000 |
Jose Bautista (TOR) | +500000 | +500000 | +500000 | +100000 | +50000 | +30000 | +6000 | N/A | +4000 | +2800 | +2500 |
J.D. Martinez (DET) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | +3300 |
Francisco Lindor (CLE) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +6600 | N/A |
Jose Abreu (CWS) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2500 | +3300 |
Justin Upton (DET) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2000 | +3300 |
Nomar Mazara (TEX) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1800 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Lorenzo Cain (KC) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +2500 | +2500 |
Prince Fielder (TEX) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 | N/A |
Alex Rodriguez (NYY) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 | N/A |
Alex Gordon (KC) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 |
Troy Tulowitzki (TOR) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +3300 | N/A |
Adam Jones (BAL) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +5000 | N/A |
Jackie Bradley Jr (BOS) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +1200 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
The section below was published on March 22, 2016
When this article was first published, we pointed out that it was interesting to see that Trout opened with better odds of winning the MVP than Harper — especially when considering that the Angels win total (81) is substantially lower than the Nationals win total (88). If the Angels finish the season with a record of 81-81 or worse, it would be exceedingly unlikely that Trout would win the MVP Award. In fact, since 1931 there have only been seven winners from a non-winning team:
- 1952 NL — Hank Sauer, Chicago Cubs, 77-77
- 1958 NL — Ernie Banks, Cubs, 74-80
- 1987 NL — Andre Dawson, Cubs, 76-85
- 1989 AL — Robin Yount, Milwaukee Brewers, 81-81
- 1991 AL — Cal Ripken, Jr., Baltimore Orioles, 67-95
- 2003 AL — Alex Rodriguez, Texas Rangers, 71-91
However, when Bovada posted MVP odds Harper (+200) was listed with shorter odds than Trout (+225). There’s very little doubt that Trout will once again post an impressive slash line, but his team’s performance could hinder his MVP prospects.
We also pointed out that there were two intriguing long shot candidates in the American League: Jose Bautista (+2500) and Jose Abreu (+3300). For what it’s worth, bettors can find Joey Bats at +2800 at Bovada which highlights the importance of shopping the best line.
It’s also worth noting that there are several discrepancies between the odds at Bovada and BetOnline, which is highlighted best by Boston’s Mookie Betts (+900 vs. +2800) and Houston’s Carlos Correa (+1600 vs +3300). Considering that the Red Sox are the favorite to win the American League, the 23-year old Betts could provide excellent value at +2800.
In the National League, Harper looks like a strong bet to repeat. Most projections have the Nationals earning a playoff berth with Harper leading the league in Wins Above Replacement (WAR). That said, I think that Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo (+1400) could be another undervalued bet. Teammate Kris Bryant (+900) may have the higher long-term ceiling, but he’s young and inexperienced. Rizzo is still only 26-years old and has slashed .282/.386/.519 with 63 home runs and 179 RBI over the past two seasons.
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