NHL Marketwatch Edition 24 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 14-9, +10.27 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the New Jersey Devils, fell on the road to the heavily favored New York Rangers by a final score of 4-2.

Trailing by a pair of goals midway through the second period, the Devils fought back to cut the deficit to 3-2 when Petr Sykora
notched his 17th goal of the season. However, New Jersey’s spirited comeback attempt fell short when the Rangers’ Derek Stepan scored with less than two minutes remaining in regulation to seal the victory for New York.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the loss, NHL Marketwatch drops to 14-9 (+10.27 units) on the season.

Nashville Predators +130 over St. Louis Blues

With the 2011-12 NHL regular season entering the final week of play, the Nashville Predators (44-24-8, 96 points) travel to the Scottrade Center to face the St. Louis Blues (47-20-9, 103 points), with the puck set to drop at 8:00 PM ET.

Sitting atop the NHL with 103 total points, the upstart Blues have the inside track on both the President’s Trophy and the number one seed in the Western Conference.

However, strengthened by several key trade deadline acquistions, the Predators have flown under the radar and quietly become one of the most impressive and well-balanced teams in the league.

Led by forwards Mike Fisher (24-25-49), David Legwand (18-31-49) and all-world defenseman Shea Weber (16-30-46), Nashville ranks in the top-12 in the NHL in all major team statistical categories, including goals per game (2.8, 8th), goals against (2.6, 9th), power play percentage (21.8%, 1st) and penatly kill percentage (83.1%, 12th).

In addition, not only is goaltender Pekka Rinne (41-16-8, 2.41 GAA, .922 SV %) a favorite to win the Vezina trophy, but he also has a sparkling 4-0-1 record and microscopic 1.33 GAA this season against St. Louis.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Nashville opened at +140 (Cris) and is currently receiving just 34% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market
%

Sprtsbk.com
BetUS Carib
WagerWeb
5Dimes SIA
NASHVILLEST. LOUIS 34%66% 18%82% 39%

61%
13%

87%
30%70% 51%

49%
44%

56%

Despite the lopsided betting in favor of St. Louis, the moneyline has actually dropped to Nashville +130 (Cris).

This Reverse Line Movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the road dog Predators.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a positive Smart Money move on Nashville +125 by Carib Sports (22-33, 48%, +2.35 units), which currently ranks in the top-10 in terms of its respective NHL Betting System.

Also important to note, Nashville fits seamlessly into the criteria we look for when Betting Against the Public in the NHL.

As our article explains, after closely examining more than 8,000 NHL games between 2005-2011, the data shows that not only are visiting teams undervalued in the NHL but, more importantly, teams receiving less than 35% of moneyline wagers have yielded the highest Return on Investment (3.6%) of any percentage bracket.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.


Currently, Cris has the most profitable moneyline for Nashville (+130), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the home favorite Blues and going with Pekka Rinne and the underdog Predators to continue their dominance over St. Louis and get NHL Marketwatch back on the winning track.

Games to Watch (14-9, +10.27 units)

Nashville Predators +130 (Cris)

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