NHL Marketwatch Edition 23 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 14-8, +11.27 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Carolina Hurricanes, suffered a 4-2 defeat against the heavily favored New York Rangers.

Trailing 3-0 midway through the second period, the ‘Canes picked up goals from Tim Brent and Drayson Bowman to cut the deficit to 3-2. However, Carolina’s spirited comeback fell short when Carl Hagelin scored late in the final stanza to seal the victory for New York.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the loss, NHL Marketwatch falls to 14-8 (+11.27 units) on the season.

New Jersey Devils +126 over New York Rangers

With the 2011-12 NHL regular season entering the final month of play, the New Jersey Devils (41-26-5, 87 points) travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the division rival New York Rangers (44-20-7, 95 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

While many teams around the league are jockeying hard for playoff positioning, the Devils and Rangers are two postseason locks trending in different directions.

After spending much of the season as arguably the NHL’s best team, the Rangers have gone just 4-5-1 thus far in the month of March. Conversely, the Devils have posted an impressive 6-3-1 record over that same time period.

Central to the Devils’ late-season resurgence has been the stellar offensive play of forwards Ilya Kovalchuk (30-42-72), Patrik Elias (24-44-68) and captain Zach Parise (28-34-62).

Meanwhile, future Hall-of-Famer Martin Brodeur (26-19-3, 2.42 GAA, .907 SV %) and veteran Johan Hedberg (15-7-2, 2.37, .913) has combined to form one of the best goaltending tandems in the NHL.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, New Jersey opened at +134 (Pinnacle) and is currently receiving just 31% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Despite the lopsided betting in favor of New York, the moneyline has actually dropped to New Jersey +126 (Pinnacle). This Reverse Line Movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the road dog Devils.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a hugely profitable Steam Move on New Jersey +135 by the market-setting sportsbook Cris (178-136, 56%, +32.69 units) which currently ranks by far and away the number one book in terms of its respective NHL Betting System.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, Pinnacle has the most profitable moneyline for New Jersey (+126), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the home favorite Rangers and going with the underdog Devils to pick up the big road victory and get NHL Marketwatch back on the winning track.

Games to Watch (14-8, +11.27 units)

New Jersey Devils +126 (Pinnacle)

Enjoy the game!