NHL Marketwatch Edition 18 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 11-6, +9.21 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Florida Panthers, fell on the road to the heavily favored Washington Capitals by a final score of 4-0. Alex Ovechkin scored a pair of goals while veteran netminder Tomas Vokoun stopped all 42 shots he faced to lift the Caps to the shutout victory.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the loss, NHL Marketwatch suffers its second consecutive defeat to fall to 11-6 (+9.21 units) on the season.

Carolina Hurricanes +145 over Montreal Canadiens

With the 2011-12 NHL season entering the playoff push, the Carolina Hurricanes (20-25-11, 51 points) travel to the Bell Centre to face the Montreal Canadiens (23-24-9, 55 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

Although the Hurricanes rank in the bottom third in the NHL in terms of goals per game (2.5), goals against per game (3.0), power play percentage (14.9) and penalty kill percentage (78.3), Carolina has gone an impressive 7-4-5 since January 1, as well as 4-2-4 in their last ten games.

Offensively, Carolina is led by captain Eric Staal (14-27-41), center Tuomo Ruutu (17-13-30) and playmaking phenom Jeff Skinner (15-14-29) , who won the Rookie of the Year award last season as an 18-year-old.

In turn, Cam Ward (20-18-10, 2.79 GAA, .912 SV %) continues to be Carolina’s backbone in net and only seems to be getting stronger as the year goes on.

In the month of February, Ward has been nearly perfect, going 2-0-2 with a miniscule 1.94 GAA and gaudy .942 SV %.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Carolina opened at +135 (SIA) and is currently receiving just 20% of moneyline  wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

As a result of the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of home favorite Montreal, the moneyline has increased to +145 (SIA).

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a notable Smart Money play on Carolina by 5Dimes (22-15, 59%, +10.03 units), which is currently by far and away the number one book in terms of its respective NHL Betting System.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, SIA has the most profitable moneyline for the Hurricanes (+145), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the home favorite Habs and going with the underdog Hurricanes to continue their resurgence and get NHL Marketwatch back on the winning track.

Games to Watch (11-6, +9.21 units)

Hurricanes +145 (SIA)

Enjoy the games!