NHL Marketwatch Edition 17 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 11-5, +10.21 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Calgary Flames, suffered a 3-1 defeat at home to the heavily favored Detroit Red Wings.

Newly-acquired winger Michael Cammalleri scored the lone goal for the Flames on the power play and goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff made 25 saves in net, however it wasn’t enough as Detroit scored a pair of unanswered strikes late in the final stanza to lift the Wings to the big road victory.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the loss, NHL Marketwatch suffers its first defeat in three weeks to fall to 11-5 (+10.21 units) on the season.

Florida Panthers +135 over Washington Capitals

With the 2011-12 NHL season entering the playoff push, the Florida Panthers (24-16-11, 59 points) travel to the Verizon Center to face the Washington Capitals (27-24-4, 58 points), with the puck being dropped at 7 PM ET.

While the Capitals remain a big public favorite due to their plethora of big name stars like Alex Ovechkin (20-19-39), Alexander Semin (13-17-30) and goaltender Tomas Vokoun (21-13-1, 2.54 GAA, .917 SV %), Washington has grossly underachieved this season mainly due to their maddeningly inconsistent play.

In turn, Florida enters this divisional showdown as the top seed in the Southeast, a place they have rarely ever occupied this late in the season.

Offensively, the Panthers are led by breakout sensation Kris Versteeg (20-25-45), center Stephen Weiss (13-25-38) and defenseman Brian Campbell (3-34-37).

And although number one goaltender Jose Theodore (14-9-5, 2.50 GAA, .916 SV %) is expected to miss tonight’s game with a knee injury, former Boston College star Scott Clemmensen (8-3-5, 2.73 GAA, .912 SV %) has played well in his absence.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Florida opened at +145 (Cris) and is currently receiving just 36% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

Despite the relatively lopsided betting in favor of Washington, the moneyline has actually dropped to Florida +135 (Cris).

This Reverse Line Movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the underdog Panthers.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a notable Smart Money play on Florida +135 by 5Dimes (20-11, 64%, +11.58 units), which is currently by far and away the number one book in terms of its respective NHL Betting System.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, Cris, Bookmaker and SIA have the most profitable moneyline for the Panthers (+135), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the home favorite Capitals and going with the underdog Panthers to pick up a huge road victory and get NHL Marketwatch back on the winning track.

Games to Watch (11-5, +10.21 units)
Panthers +135 (Cris)

Enjoy the games!