NHL Marketwatch Edition 16 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 11-4, +11.21 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Buffalo Sabres, snapped a 12-game road losing skid by upending the New Jersey Devils 2-1 in a shootout. Nathan Gerbe scored the game-winner against Martin Brodeur while Ryan Miller stopped 27 of the 28 shots he faced to pace Buffalo to the victory.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the win, NHL Marketwatch runs its winning streak to two consecutive games to improve to 11-4 (+11.21 units) on the season.

Calgary Flames +135 over Detroit Red Wings

With the 2011-12 NHL season back in action after the prolonged All-Star break, the Calgary Flames (23-21-6, 52 points) play host to the Detroit Red Wings (33-16-1, 67 points) at the Scotiabank Saddledome, with the puck being dropped at 9:00 PM ET.

While Detroit remains a perennial powerhouse atop the Western Conference standings as well as nearly unbeatable at home (20-2-1), the Red Wings have gone just 13-14-0 this season away from Joe Louis Arena.

In turn, Calgary enters this pivotal showdown in 11th place and fighting for a playoff berth, while also owning the distinction as the only team in the NHL with a winning record against Detroit (2-1).

Offensively, the Flames are paced by future Hall-of-Famer Jarome Iginla (18-21-39) and playmaking center Olli Jokinen (12-26-38). Defensively, Calgary’s biggest strength remains veteran goaltender Mikka Kiprusoff (22-16-3, 2.31 GAA, .920 SV %), who is enjoying yet another stellar season in net.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Calgary opened at +130 (SIA) and is currently receiving just 18% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

As a result of the hugely lopsided and continued hammering of road favorite Detroit, the moneyline has increased to Calgary +135.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a plethora of notable system plays on the Flames, including a Steam Move on Calgary +130 by Catalina (10-5, 66%, +5.94 units) and a Smart Money play on Calgary +120 by ABC (14-11, 56%, +5.54 units).

Currently, both books rank in the top four in terms of their respective NHL Betting Systems.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, SIA has the most profitable moneyline for the Flames (+135), however, remember to shop for the best line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the heavily favored Red Wings and going with the underdog Flames to pick up a huge home victory and keep NHL Marketwatch on the winning track.

Games to Watch (11-4, +11.21 units)
Calgary +135 (SIA)

Enjoy the games!