NHL Marketwatch Edition 15 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 10-4, +9.71 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Tampa Bay Lightning, picked up a huge 5-3 victory at home over the heavily favored Boston Bruins. Center Dominic Moore scored the tie-breaking goal with just 3:45 left in regulation and Mathieu Garon stopped 26 of the 29 shots he faced to pace the upset victory.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the win, NHL Marketwatch snaps its two game losing skid to improve to 10-4 (+9.71 units) on the season.

Buffalo Sabres +150 over New Jersey Devils

With the 2011-12 NHL season entering its final week of play before the All-Star break, the Buffalo Sabres (19-24-5, 43 points) travel to the Prudential Center to take on the New Jersey Devils (26-19-2, 54 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:00 PM ET.

After spending much of the season in playoff contention, the Sabres have gone just 2-7-1 over their past 10 games to drop all the way to last place in the Eastern Conference. To make matters worse, Buffalo has lost all five games of their current seven game road trip thus far.

Offensively, the Sabres are led by the dynamic duo of Jason Pominville (17-30-47) and Thomas Vanek (19-22-41), with goaltender Ryan Miller (11-15-2, 3.15 GAA, .897 SV %) continuing to get the majority of the starts in net despite his lackluster numbers.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Buffalo opened at +155 (Olympic) and is currently receiving just 35% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

Despite the largely lopsided betting and continued hammering of home favorite New Jersey, the moneyline has dropped to Buffalo +150 (Olympic).

This Reverse Line Movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on road dog Buffalo.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a notable Steam Move on Buffalo +160 by Catalina (9-5, 64%, +4.34 units), which currently ranks 4th overall in terms of its respective NHL Betting System.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, Olympic has the most profitable moneyline for the Sabres (+150), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the home favorite Devils and going with the underdog Sabres to end their horrific losing skid and keep NHL Marketwatch on the winning track.
Games to Watch (10-4, +9.71 units)
Buffalo +150 (Olympic)

Enjoy the games!