NHL Marketwatch Edition 14 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 9-4, +8.06 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Tampa Bay Lightning, lost 5-4 in heartbreaking fashion against the heavily favored Vancouver Canucks.

Trailing 4-3 late in the third period, the Bolts’ Ryan Malone scored with just over a minute remaining to force overtime. However, the spirited comeback fell short as Vancouver’s Mason Raymond scored the lone shootout goal to lift the Canucks to victory.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the loss, NHL Marketwatch suffers its second consecutive defeat to fall to 9-4 (+8.06 units) on the season.

Tampa Bay Lightning +165 over Boston Bruins

With the 2011-12 NHL season entering its second half of play, the Tampa Bay Lightning (17-23-4, 38 points) play host to the Boston Bruins (29-12-1, 59 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET at the Tampa Bay Times Forum.

After spending much of the year in the top half of the Southeast Division, the Lightning have lost seven consecutive games to fall all the way to last place in the Eastern Conference.

However, despite their horrific fall from grace, the Lightning remain one of the most prolific offensive teams in the NHL. Led by otherworldly sniper Steven Stamkos (30-20-50), the Bolts rank 13th in the league in terms of goals-per-game (2.7).

In addition, the Lightning have also played well at home this season, posting an impressive 11-7-1 record at the Tampa Bay Times Forum.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Tampa Bay opened at +170 (SIA) and is currently receiving just 23% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

Despite the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of road favorite Boston, the moneyline has dropped to Tampa Bay +165 (SIA).

This Reverse Line Movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the underdog Lightning.

Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a notable Smart Money play on Tampa Bay +160 by ABC (13-11, 54%, +3.94 units), which currently ranks among the top 5 in terms of its respectiveNHL Betting System.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, SIA has the most profitable moneyline for the Lightning (+165), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the heavily favored Bruins and going with the underdog Lightning to end their losing streak and get NHL Marketwatch back on the winning track.
Games to Watch (9-4, +8.06 units)
Tampa Bay +165 (SIA)

Enjoy the games!