Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.
Overall Record= 9-3, +9.06 units
Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.
Recapping Last Week
Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Edmonton Oilers, fell on the road to the heavily favored Buffalo Sabres by a final score of 4-3. The Oilers picked up goals from Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner and Corey Potter but it wasn’t enough as Sabres goaltender Ryan Miller (23 saves) stood tall in the final moments to lead Buffalo to the victory.
With the loss, NHL Marketwatch suffers its first defeat in nearly two months to fall to 9-3 (+9.06 units) on the season.
Tampa Bay Lightning +145 over Vancouver Canucks
With the 2011-12 NHL season nearing the midway point, the Tampa Bay Lightning (17-20-3, 37 points) play host to the Vancouver Canucks (26-14-3, 55 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET at the Tampa Bay Times Forum.
With a 3-1 loss to Montreal their last time out, the Lightning capped a three game road trip in Canada without a victory, while also being outscored 14-5 along the way.
However, despite their horrific road record (6-15-3), Tampa Bay remains one of the best performing teams at home in the NHL, posting an impressive 11-5-0 record in 16 games.
Central to the Bolts’ success has been the stellar play of their most prolific offensive stars, led by Steven Stamkos (28-17-45), Martin St. Louis (10-21-31) and captain Vincent Lecavalier (15-13-28). Defensively, journeyman Mathieu Garon (11-11-2, 2.85 GAA, .903 SV %) had leapfrogged veteran Dwayne Roloson (6-9-1, 3.76 GAA, .881 SV %) to assume the role of #1 goaltender.
According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Tampa Bay opened at +135 (SIA) and is currently receiving just 27% of moneyline wagers.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.
As a result of the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of road favorite Vancouver, the moneyline has increased to Tampa Bay +145 (SIA).
Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a pair of extremely profitable system plays on the Lightning, led by a Smart Money play on Tampa Bay +130 by Cris [Cigar] (29-24, 54%, +10.96 units) as well as a Steam Move on Tampa Bay +140 by Cris [Cigar] (67-48, 58%, +9.20 units).
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
Currently, SIA has the most profitable moneyline for the Lightning (+145), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.
We are fading the heavily favored Canucks and going with the underdog Lightning to keep their impressive home record intact and get NHL Marketwatch back on the winning track.
Games to Watch (9-3, +9.06 units)
Tampa Bay +145 (SIA)
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