Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.
Overall Record= 9-2, +10.06 units
Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.
Recapping Last Week
Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Tampa Bay Lightning, posted a 5-1 victory at home over the heavily favored Philadelphia Flyers. Led by dynamic playmaker Steven Stamkos (2 goals), the Bolts got goals from four different players while goaltender Mathieu Garon turned aside 31 of the 32 shots he faced to lift Tampa to the upset victory.
With the victory, NHL Marketwatch notches its seventh consecutive win to improve to 9-2 (+10.06 units) on the season.
Edmonton Oilers +145 over Buffalo Sabres
In the first NHL Marketwatch installment of the new year, the Edmonton Oilers (16-19-3, 35 points) travel to the First Niagara Center to face the Buffalo Sabres (17-17-4, 38 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:00 PM ET.
After opening the 2011-12 season with an impressive 8-2-2 record, the Oilers have gone just 4-11-1 over their past 16 games to drop to last place in the Western Conference’s Northwest Division.
However, despite their recent tailspin, Edmonton remains one of the most balanced teams in the NHL (13th in goals scored, 14th in goals against), while also owning one of the better special teams units in the league (2nd best power play, 11th best penalty kill).
Central to Oilers’ success is their gifted young trio of 1st round picks, led by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13-22-35), Jordan Eberle (16-25-41) and Taylor Hall (11-15-26). Defensively, Edmonton leans heavily on both veteran Nikolai Khabibulin (11-10-3, 2.25 GAA, .924 SV % ) and 25-year-old Devan Dubnyk (5-9-0, 3.09 GAA, .924 SV %) in goal.
According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Edmonton opened at +135 (SIA) and is currently receiving just 25% of moneyline wagers.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.
As a result of the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of home favorite Buffalo, the moneyline has increased to Edmonton +145 (SIA).
Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a notable Smart Money play on Edmonton +140 by Pinnacle (20-24, 45%, +1.67 units) as well as a positive Steam Move on Edmonton +140 by JustBet (35-28, 55%, +2.68 units). Currently, both books rank in the top seven of their respective NHL Betting System categories this season.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
Currently, SIA has the most profitable moneyline for the Oilers (+145), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.
We are fading the heavily favored Sabres and going with the underdog Oilers to pick up a big road victory and keep NHL Marketwatch’s impressive winning streak intact.
Games to Watch (9-2, +10.06 units)
Edmonton Oilers +145 (SIA)
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