NHL Marketwatch Edition 11 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 8-2, +8.66 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Phoenix Coyotes, picked up a huge 2-1 road victory over the heavily favored Florida Panthers. Veteran winger Ray Whitney paced the offensive attack with a goal and an assist while goaltender Mike Smith stopped 19 of the 20 shots he faced.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the victory, NHL Marketwatch notches its sixth consecutive win to improve to 8-2 (+8.66 units) on the season.

Tampa Bay Lightning +140 over Philadelphia Flyers

With the NHL season back in action after the long holiday break, the Tampa Bay Lightning (14-17-3, 31 points) play host to the Philadelphia Flyers (21-9-4, 46 points) at the St. Pete Times Forum, with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

Despite having one of the worst road records in the league, the Bolts are an impressive 8-5-0 at home this season, including 2-0-1 at home against the Flyers during the 2011 calendar year.

Offensively, the Lightning are led by star forwards Steven Stamkos (20-17-37), Vincent Lecavalier (11-12-23) and Martin St. Louis (10-14-24), who recently returned to the lineup after suffering an eye injury. Meanwhile, Mathieu Garon (8-9-2, 2.84 GAA, .902 SV %) has leapfrogged veteran Dwayne Roloson (6-8-1, 3.72 GAA, .883 SV %) to assume the number one spot in net.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Tampa Bay opened at +130 (SIA) and is currently receiving just 17% of moneyline wagers despite playing on their home ice.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

As a result of the hugely lopsided betting and continued hammering of road favorite Philadelphia, the moneyline has increased to Tampa Bay +140 (SIA).

In addition, we have also triggered a notable Smart Money play on Tampa Bay +125 by 5Dimes (16-6, 72%, +11.41 units), which is currently by far and away the best performing NHL Betting System this year.

[In order to provide our members with the most up-to-date and late-breaking Sports Betting System plays, All-Pro Combo users can be automatically alerted to all Smart Money and Steam Move plays, as well as our office released Square Plays and Best Bets, by accessing the settings tab located on our homepage.]

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the moneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Currently, SIA has the most profitable moneyline for the Lightning (+140), however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before the puck drops.

We are fading the heavily favored Flyers and going with the underdog Lightning to pick up a big home victory and keep NHL Marketwatch’s impressive winning streak intact.
Games to Watch (8-2, +8.66 units)
Tampa Bay Lightning +140 (SIA)

Enjoy the games!