NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 9 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 5-2-1 (71.4%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 8

In arguably the most dramatic game of the season, Michigan State broke a 31-31 tie when quarterback Kirk Cousins connected with Keith Nichol on a 44-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass, topping previously undefeated Wisconsin, 37-31. We grabbed Michigan State at +8, so the straight up victory easily beat the spread and improved our record to 5-2 on the season.

Clemson vs. Georgia Tech (10/29 – 8:00 p.m. ET)

Clemson heads to Atlanta this week to put its perfect season on the line against conference-rival Georgia Tech. Through eight games, the Tigers’ offense has been virtually unstoppable, ranking second in the nation in total yards. Quarterback Tajh Boyd has led the way for Clemson, tossing 24 touchdowns passes compared to only three interceptions.

Georgia Tech started the season with six straight victories, but has lost consecutive road games to Virginia and Miami. Head coach Paul Johnson currently has his option offense ranked first in the nation in both rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, with nine different Yellow Jacket players visiting the end zone on the ground so far this season.

Clemson opened as a 4.5-point favorite at CRIS and, according to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends data, is currently receiving 85% of spread wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Despite being one of the most lopsided games of the week, in terms of spread betting percentages, the line has dropped to -3 at both CRIS and 5Dimes.

Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems triggered a Smart Money Play at (+11.77 units) and a Steam Move at Easy Street (+5.94 units), our top sportsbooks for each Betting System in 2011, on Georgia Tech.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

The majority of the sports betting marketplace is offering this game somewhere between 3 and 3.5, with two books at a full 4. Once again, we’ll fade a significant public favorite, follow the sharp money and take Georgia Tech, plus the points.

Game to Watch (5-2-1)
Georgia Tech +4

Enjoy the games!