NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 5 2011


Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 1-2-1 (33%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 4

LSU continued its pattern of pounding ranked opponents, dominating West Virginia on the road for the Tigers’ third win over a Top 25 team this season. Despite giving up 533 yards to West Virginia’s offense, LSU’s opportunistic defense forced four turnovers in their 47-21 win over the Mountaineers and Marketwatch.

Penn State vs. Indiana (10/1 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

After combining to score 25 points in its previous two games, Penn State got the offense back on track last week, racking up 468 total yards en route to a 34-6 victory over Eastern Michigan.

Indiana comes into this week’s matchup with a deceiving 1-3 record, despite outscoring its opponents 110-106 on the season. The Hoosiers have been in every game, with their three losses against Ball State, Virginia and North Texas coming by an average of 4.3 points.

Penn State opened as a 17.5-point favorite at Olympic and, according to our College Football Betting Trends, has received a steady public pounding all week, with 72% of spread bets taking the Nittany Lions.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

With the betting public heavily favoring Penn State, Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems have lit up Indiana. Six positive Steam Moves have been triggered on the Hoosiers, including plays at Pinnacle (+5.62 units), CRIS (+5.59 units) and 5Dimes (+2.23 units), our top three sportsbooks for College Football Steam Moves this season.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

After bouncing around early in the week, the spread betting percentages settled in Tuesday morning and have remained stable since. However, Steam Moves and Smart Money Playstriggered on Indiana pushed the line down from its opener of 17.5 to 14.5 by Friday morning.

Most sportsbooks are offering this game at 14.5, but a few books are still at 15.5, so make sure to shop for the best line and grab the best possible number.

Game to Watch (1-2-1)
Indiana +15.5

Enjoy the games!!
The Team at Sports Insights