NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 4 2011


Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 1-1-1 (50%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 3

Wisconsin jumped all over Northern Illinois last week, racking up a ridiculous 621 yards of total offense. Quarterback Russell Wilson led the way, throwing for 347 yards and three touchdowns while Montee Ball and James White spearheaded the Badgers’ rushing attack, combining for 182 yards rushing.

With the offense seemingly scoring at will, Wisconsin’s defense shut down Northern Illinois, holding the Huskies’ to 237 total yards in the Badgers’ 49-7 blowout victory.

LSU vs. West Virginia (9/24 – 8:00 p.m. ET)

Heading into Week 4 of the 2011 College Football season, LSU already has high-profile victories over Oregon and Mississippi State and has outscored its three opponents, 108-36. The Tigers’ early-season success can be attributed to their tenacious defense, which allowed only 193 total yards in a 19-6 road-victory over Mississippi State last week.

After jumping out to a 24-3 second-quarter lead, West Virginia held off a fierce second-half comeback, topping Maryland, 37-31. The Mountaineers inflicted the majority of their damage through the air, with quarterback Geno Smith throwing for 388 yards on 49 attempts.

LSU opened between -5 and -6.5 at the market-setting sportsbooks and has settled in at -5.5 to -6 across the sports marketplace. After impressive wins against Oregon and Mississippi State, it’s no surprise to see the public jumping all over the Tigers, who are currently receiving 83% of spread wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

According to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, this is easily the most heavily bet game (in terms of number of total bets) of the day, which is especially impressive since it doesn’t kickoff until 8 p.m. ET.

Despite the heavy public interest and one-sided betting, Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Systems triggered a Steam Move at CRIS (40-23, +13.4 units) on West Virginia, suggesting sharp money is backing the Mountaineers.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

While most of the market is set at West Virginia +5.5, multiple sportsbooks are offering this game at +6.5, providing an extra point for those willing to shop for the best line.

Game to Watch (1-1-1)
West Virginia +6.5

Enjoy the games!!
The Team at Sports Insights