NCAAFB Marketwatch Week 12 2011

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of College Football Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Football point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 7-3-1 (70.0%)

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Week 11

In our first Friday edition of the season, Marketwatch scored our seventh win as South Florida, giving 3.5 points, beat Syracuse, 37-17, improving our winning percentage to 70% through 11 games.

Wisconsin vs. Illinois (11/19 – 12:00 p.m. ET)

Wisconsin grabbed an easy 29-point win last week, outgaining Minnesota 461-156 in total yards. Montee Ball was simply unstoppable for Wisconsin, rushing for 166 yards and two touchdowns.

Illinois struggled to a 31-14 loss against Michigan, their fourth in a row. Wolverine running back Fitzgerald Toussaint ran wild against the Illini, racking up 192 yards on 27 carries.

According to Sports Insights’ College Football Betting Trends, Wisconsin opened as a 13.5-point favorite at 5Dimes and is currently receiving 88% of spread wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

The heavy, one-sided public action on Wisconsin has pushed the line up to -14.5 at the market-setting sportsbooks.

Despite the lopsided spread betting, two positive Smart Money Plays have been triggered on Illinois, including one at (+16.64 units), our #1-ranked College Football Betting System this season.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Multiple public books are offering this game at a full 15 points, so we’ll follow the sharp money, shop for the best line and take the home underdog,

Game to Watch (7-3-1)
Illinois +15

Enjoy the games!