by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 5
Recapping Thursday Night
Week 5 of NCAA Football Marketwatch was split into two editions because our first Game to Watch was played Thursday night. In that game, Texas A&M jumped out to a 21-7 lead at halftime over Oklahoma State. However, the Cowboys roared back in the second half, scoring 21 unanswered points en route to a 3-point victory.
We make a point to emphasize shopping for the best line in each edition of Marketwatch and Thursday’s game showed just how important this is. At the time of publication, most sportsbooks had Texas A&M as a 2.5-point to 3-point underdog, with one book offering +3.5. Those who were able to grab Texas A&M, getting 3.5 points, turned a potential loss or push into a win, which can be huge for your bottom line over the course of an entire season.
Overall Record = 7-6 (53.8%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 5 – Games to Watch
Virginia Tech vs. NC State (10/2 – 3:30 p.m. ET)
After an embarrassing loss to James Madison, Virginia Tech has begun to play more like the Hokies we know and love. Following a blowout of East Carolina, Bud Foster’s defense dominated Boston College, allowing only 70 yards rushing, while forcing three turnovers, in Tech’s 19-0 road win over the Eagles.
NC State’s surprising 4-0 start has propelled them to the top of the ACC Atlantic Division standings. Quarterback Russell Wilson has led the way for the Wolfpack, throwing for 1112 yards and 11 touchdowns, compared to only one interception on the season.
Virginia Tech opened as a 6-point favorite at CRIS and the betting public has taken notice of NC State’s undefeated record. Seventy-two percent of spread bets and 78% of moneyline wagers have fallen on the Pack, shrinking the line to -3.5 across the sports marketplace. Although the public is backing NC State, Sports Insights’ Betting Systems have found value on Virginia Tech, triggering five positive Smart Money Plays and two positive Steam Moves on the Hokies.
We like this value, prompting us to take Virginia Tech and give the points.
Virginia Tech -3.5
Penn State vs. Iowa (10/2 – 8:05 p.m. ET)
In last week’s game, Penn State’s defense stepped up when it mattered, allowing Temple to convert only one third down in 11 opportunities. Evan Royster led the way for the Nittany Lions’ offense, rushing for a career-high 187 yards in the 9-point win.
Iowa rebounded from a tough loss to Arizona by blowing out Ball State last week. The Hawkeyes dominated both sides of the ball, outgaining the Cardinals by 450 total yards.
Iowa opened as a 4.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving 78% of spread bets and 64% of moneyline wagers. These percentages have pushed the line to -7 across the sports marketplace. This added value on the underdog has triggered four positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move at WSEX (7-1, +5.4 units) on Penn State.
In our final game of the week, we’re fading a massive public favorite, following the Smart Money and will take Penn State to keep it close.
Penn State +7
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So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 5.
Games to Watch (7-6)
Virginia Tech -3.5
Penn State +7
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights