Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 2-4
Recapping Last Week
Last week’s NBA Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Minnesota Timberwolves, fell at home to the defending champion Dallas Mavericks by a final score of 104-97. Kevin Love (32 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists) had yet another remarkable performance for the T’Wolves, but it wasn’t enough as perennial All-Star Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 33 points to lead the Mavs to the big road victory.
Despite getting two points at home, the upstart Timberwolves were unable to cover the spread, dropping NBA Marketwatch to 2-4 on the season.
Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
With the 2011-12 NBA season closing in on the All-Star break, the Miami Heat (22-7, 10-5 road) travel to the Bankers Life Fieldhouse to take on the Indiana Pacers (17-10, 7-3 home), with tip-off set for 7:00 PM ET.
Thanks to the stellar play of their Big-Three, the Heat are off to their best start in franchise history through 29 games.
However, led by Danny Granger (18.6 PPG), Roy Hibbert (13.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG) and David West (12.4 PPG), the Pacers have vaulted all the way to 5th in the Eastern Conference.
In addition, Indiana has quickly become a sleeper pick for many NBA pundits and analysts alike due to their balanced scoring (seven different players average at least 9.3 PPG), team rebounding (43.8/game, 5th best in the NBA) and stifling defense (92.4 PPG allowed, 9th best in the NBA) under second-year head coach Frank Vogel.
According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Miami opened as a 1-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and is currently receiving 86% of all spread bets.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sportsbook||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
As a result of the hugely lopsided and continued hammering of road favorite Miami, the line has increased to Indiana +2 (Cris).
Further strengthening our selection, we have also triggered a profitable Smart Money move on Indiana +1.5 by Heritage (47-36, 56%, +8.38 units), which is currently by far and away the number one book in terms of its respective NBA Betting System.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
Currently, most every book is offering this game at 2 points, however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change before tip-off.
We are fading the road favorite Heat and going with the underdog Pacers to pick up the big home victory and get NBA Marketwatch back on the winning path.
Games to Watch (2-4)
Indiana +2 (Cris)
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