NBA Marketwatch Edition 6 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the sixth edition of the 2011-2012 NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 2-3

Recapping Last Week

In last week’s edition of NBA Marketwatch, we took a look at the matchup between the New Orleans Hornets and Miami Heat.  The Hornets took a 2-point lead after the first quarter and a 2-point deficit into halftime only to unravel in the 3rd quarter, getting outscored 36-19 in that frame.  Although the Hornets shot 53.3% from the field and committed less turnovers, they could not overcome the disparity in rebounds (-14) and fast-break points (-21).  New Orleans made a late run with a chance for the backdoor cover, but ultimately fell short of the +12 spread in a 109-95 loss to the Heat.

The loss was our third of the season and dropped marketwatch to a 2-3 record.

Click here to view last week’s article

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (2/10 – 8:05 PM ET)

In this week’s edition of NBA Marketwatch, we are going to take a closer look at the contest between the Dallas Mavericks (15-11, 6-6 Away) and Minnesota Timberwolves (13-13, 7-8 Home).   Over a 5-year stretch prior to this year, Dallas had won 18 of 19 over Minnesota but the Timberwolves have won both meetings on the year thus far.  The Mavericks could have point guard Jason Kidd back tonight after missing the last 6 games due to a strained right calf, although his numbers on the year (4.1 points, 5.1 assists) are well below his career average.

On the other side, Minnesota will welcome back All-Star Kevin Love, who returns from a 2-game suspension for stomping on Rockets’ forward Luis Scola last Saturday (2/4).  Love is averaging 25 ppg and 13.7 rpg this year and playing almost 40 minutes a game while guard Ricky Rubio has helped revitalize this young Minnesota team along with the veteran guard leadership of JJ Barea and Luke Ridnour.

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Dallas opened as a 2-point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook and is currently receiving nearly 70% of all spread bets.  The line has fluctuated between 2 and 2.5 across most of the sports betting marketplace and could be on the move again prior to tip-off, so be sure to shop for the best line.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

Teams Market Avg % Sportsbook BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

Multiple Smart Money moves were triggered on the Timberwolves at +2 as well as a positive Steam Move play on Minnesota at +2.5, triggered by Heritage (23-15, +6.08 units).  Despite the public pounding of the Mavericks, big money moves have kept this spread under 3.

Most of the public books are offering this game at 2 points so we’ll fade the public, take the points, and follow the sharp money in hopes of getting NBA Marketwatch back to .500.

Game to Watch (2-3)

Minnesota +2 (Multiple Books)

Enjoy the games!