NBA Marketwatch – Edition 11 2011-12

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 4-6

Recapping Last Week

In the last edition of NBA Martketwatch, the Cleveland Cavaliers were able to pull off the upset in Denver, earning a 100-99 win over the Nuggets.  The Cavs were a 10-point underdog heading into the contest but were led statistically Antawn Jamison, who poured in 33 points and 9 rebounds, while rookie sensation Kyrie Irving was huge down the stretch in securing a rare road win in Denver.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the win, this year’s NBA Marketwatch improves to 4-6.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7pm ET)

This week’s NBA Marketwatch article once again focuses on the Cleveland Cavaliers (17-29, 8-14 away), who will take on the Philadelphia 76ers (27-22, 17-10 home) at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA at 7pm ET.  The Cavs have hit another rough patch this season while big man Anderson Varejao has been out, losing 6 of the last 7 games, with the most recent a 25-point loss to Phoenix on Sunday (3/25).

One of the few bright spots for Cleveland has been their rookie point guard Kyrie Irving, who averages nearly 19 points and 6 assists per game while shooting almost 50% from the field and over 85% from the line.  Veteran forward Antawn Jamison has been the only other consistent scorer for Cleveland, averaging nearly 18 points and 8 rebounds a game.  After getting nicked up the last few games, he is listed as probable for tonight with an ankly injury, but guard Daniel Gibson will not play.  The only injury concern for the Sixers is Andre Iguodala, who has been battling tendinitis in his knee and may miss his second straight game.  Be sure to check out our NBA Injury Page for the latest news and alerts.

According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Philly opened as an 10-point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook and is currently receiving 71% of all spread bets and 90% of all moneyline bets.  Although the public is pounding the hometown Sixers to win comfortably, the spread has actually dropped a full point to 9 at CRIS.

This “reverse-line movement” across the marketplace can be attributed to a Steam Move triggered by CRIS (228-186, +21.5 units), which is currently far-and-away the best triggering book on the year when it comes to NBA Steam Moves.  To further strengthen our selection, a Smart Money move was recently triggered at Grande on the Cavs at +9, which is where the line currently stands.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:

Teams Market Avg % Sportsbook BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

An additional determing factor for our selection is that Cleveland is nearing the double-digit road underdog threshold which has been historically profitable, as mentioned in our 2011-12 Betting Against the Public in the NBA article.  The criteria includes visiting, double-digit underdogs receiving less than 30% of spread wagers.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.  While the percentage of public bets has steadily risen on the Sixers, the line dropped a full point and has remained unchanged, which shows a great example of reverse-line movement.








Currently, nearly all books are offering 9 points; however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as lines are apt to change within the last few hours of gametime.

We’re fading the Sixers at home and going with the underdog Cavaliers to pick up another big road cover and get NBA Marketwatch back on the winning track.

Game to Watch (4-6)

Cleveland +9 (CRIS)

Enjoy the game!