Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NBA Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NBA point-spread market. Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 3-6
Recapping Last Week
In last week’s edition of NBA Martketwatch, the Charlotte Bobcats could not keep it close against the Spurs, falling 102-72 in San Antonio and failing to cover the 14.5 point spread. Up 15 points after 3 quarters, the Spurs never let up and were able to bounce back from a rare home loss to the Bulls in their previous game. Though no Spur scored more than 15 points in the game, San Antonio outrebounded Charlotte by a 55-37 margin and shot 10-20 from 3-point range while coasting to an easy win.
With the loss, this year’s NBA Marketwatch drops to 3-6.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Denver Nuggets (9pm ET)
This week’s NBA Marketwatch article focuses on the Cleveland Cavaliers (13-23, 5-11 away), who take on the Denver Nuggets (22-17, 11-8 home) at the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado at 9:00 pm ET. The Cavs stumble into tonight’s game in the midst of a six-game losing streak, most recently a 109-100 defeat to the Utah Jazz. The Nuggets, however, are playing their best ball of the year, winning five straight games, the latest a 3-point overtime win over the Sacramento Kings. This is a classic case of “buying low, selling high” as these teams appear to be headed in opposite directions.
The Cavaliers are led by rookie point guard Kyrie Irving, a great young talent averaging over 18 points and 5 assists per game. While he’s still improving on his assist-to-turnover ratio, his 48.3% field goal %, 42.4% 3-point field goal %, and 85.7% FT % are highly encouraging for a team desparate for optimism after last year’s departure of LeBron James. The Cavs have also suffered since big man Anderson Varejao went down to injury, winning only 3 of 11 games without him.
In contrast, the Nuggets are slowly getting healthier and are easing forwards Danilo Gallinari and Nene back into the lineup after both missed a prolong stretch of games. Denver is led by seven different players averaging double-digit points per game and lead the league in scoring average at 104.1 points a game. On paper, the Nuggets should have no problem putting up points against a Cavs team ranked near the bottom in points allowed per game.
According to Sports Insights’ NBA Betting Trends, Denver opened as an 11 point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook and is currently receiving 70% of all spread bets and 76% of all moneyline bets. Although the public is pounding the hometown Nuggets, the spread has actually dropped a full point to 10 at CRIS.
The line movement across the marketplace was due to separate, positive Smart Money moves on the Cavs. Carib Sports (57%, +6.8 units) triggered a move on Cleveland at 10.5 early this morning and Heritage (53%, +4.6 units) triggered a move later in the morning on the Cavs at 9.5. In addition to the multiple Smart Money moves, this year’s best Steam Move, CRIS (53%, +8.7 units), triggered a play on the Cavs at 10.5 when the line opened. Enough money has been placed on the Cavs to keep the line below the opening number.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our Contributing Sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sportsbook||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
Another factor in determing our selection is that Cleveland currently fits into our historically profitable criteria noted in our 2011-12 Betting Against the Public in the NBA article. The criteria includes visiting, double-digit underdogs receiving less than 30% of spread wagers.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro Combo members, shows how the Spread Betting Trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle. The percentage of spread bets on the Nuggets has plateaued at the 70% mark, but the line has actually dropped, risen, and dropped again.
Currently, most books are showing this game at 10 points; however, remember to Shop for the Best Line before placing your bet as this could change at any sportsbook before tip-off.
We’re fading the high-flying Nuggets at home and going with the underdog Cavaliers to pick up the big road cover and get NBA Marketwatch back on the winning path.
Game to Watch (3-6)
Cleveland +10 (CRIS)
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