Welcome to the eighth edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 4-4
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 8
Drake could not contain Creighton’s sophomore phenom Doug McDermott (23.5 ppg, 8.4 rpg) as the forward poured in 30 points and added 9 rebounds in the Bluejays’ 77-69 win on the road. Drake was outrebounded by a 37-25 margin and only hit 4-18 from three-point range but had a chance to cover the 5.5 spread in the end as a last-ditch three was off the mark.
With the loss, College Basketball Marketwatch drops to 4-4 on the year.
Boise State vs. San Diego State (10:15 PM-ET)
In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we will turn our focus to the Mountain West Conference as unranked Boise State (10-10, 0-5 MWC) travels to the Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl in San Diego to take on the 17th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs (18-3, 4-1 MWC), tipping off at 10:15 pm ET.
San Diego State has been one of the surprise teams this year, racing out to an 18-3 record and a Top-25 ranking. The Aztecs are led by the Mountain West Conference’s leading-scorer Chase Tapley, who is putting in over 16 points per game while contributing 4.2 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 2.1 steals per game.
On the other side, Boise State is paced by freshman guard-forward Anthony Drmic, who is averaging nearly 13 points and 5 rebounds a game. Drmic has struggled of late however, scoring only 25 total points over the last 4 games (all losses) and hitting just 3-23 from three-point range during that stretch.
According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Boise State opened up as a 13-point underdog at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook but is currently receiving just 24% of all spread bets.
Despite the heavily one-sided betting percentage on the home favorite San Diego State, the line has actually dropped 2 full points down to 11. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the visiting Boise State Broncos, exemplified by a Smart Money move on Boise State triggered by Diamond Sportsbook.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.
Highlighting our selection further, Sports Insights’ research has found that visiting teams receiving less than 25% of spread-bets and getting 10+ points have hit at a rate of over 53% over the last 4 years. Boise State is currently fitting that mold very well, as they are receiving just 24% of spread-bets as 11-point underdogs on the road.
The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
The market-setting sportsbooks currently have this game at 11 and some have it at 11.5 so be sure to Shop for the Best Line prior to tip-off as books may shift their numbers late.
We are taking the points on the road and following the sharp money in hopes of beginning a new win streak for College Basketball Marketwatch.
Game to Watch (4-4)
Boise State +11.5 (Heritage)
Enjoy the games!