College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 8 2011-12

Edition 8 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the eighth edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 4-3

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Edition 7

Led by Tyshawn Taylor (28 points) and Thomas Robinson (27 points, 14 rebounds), the Kansas Jayhawks took a 10 point lead into halftime over the then-ranked #3 Baylor Bears and never looked back in their 92-74 win at Allen Fieldhouse.  Kansas went on a 13-0 run over the last 4 minutes of the first half and were easily able to cover the -6.5 point spread.

Click here to view last week’s article

With the win, College Basketball Marketwatch improves to 4-3 on the year.


Creighton vs. Drake (8:05 PM-ET)

In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we will focus on a crucial Missouri Valley Conference clash between #14 Creighton (18-2, 8-1 MVC) and unranked Drake (12-8, 5-4 MVC), tippnig off at 8:05 PM ET at Knapp Center in Des Moines, Iowa.

Creighton has raced out to an 18-2 mark on the year, good for #14 in the nation, and are looking to win 6 straight road games for the first time in over 35 years.  The Bluejays are led by the nations’ third-leading scorer, Doug McDermott, who is averaging 23.2 points per game while also grabbing 8.5 rebounds per game.  The sophomore forward is shooting over 50% from 3-point range and 60% for all field goals.

Alternatively, Drake is paced by sophomore Rayvonte Rice (16.9 ppg ad 5.3 rpg) and junior Ben Simons (15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg).  The Bulldogs are 9-1 in their last 10 at home and have won two straight over Creighton at the Knapp Center.

According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Drake opened as a 6-point underdog at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook but is currently receiving just 15% of all spread bets.

Despite this heavily one-sided betting percentage on visiting Creighton, the line has dropped to 5.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the hometown Drake Bulldogs, exemplified by a Smart Money move on Drake (+5.5) at BetUS (7-8, 46%, -1.6 units).

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.


Market Avg










Highlighting our selection further, Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Systems has triggered a Steam Move on Drake +6 at Carib Sports (61-29, 67%, +26.31 units), which currently ranks as the far-and-away #1 sportsbook on the year thus far when triggering a steam move.

The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.


The market-setting sportsbooks currently have this game at 5.5 however, be sure to Shop for the Best Line prior to tip-off as books may shift their numbers late.

We are taking the points at home and following the sharp money in hopes of keeping College Basketball Marketwatch’s impressive winning streak intact.


Game to Watch (4-3)

Drake +5.5 (CRIS)


Enjoy the games!