Welcome to the seventh edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 3-3
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 6
Led by freshman guard Karl Cochran (21 points), the Wofford Terriers jumped out to an early lead and never looked back en route to a 75-58 drubbing of the visiting Charleston Cougars. Fortunately, after taking Wofford +1.5 points (Carib), we were able to cover the spread in a big way and run Marketwatch’s winning streak to two consecutive games.
With the win, College Basketball Marketwatch improves to 3-3 on the year.
Kansas vs. Baylor (9:30 PM-ET)
In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we will focus on the epic Big 12 clash between #3 Baylor (17-0, 4-0 Big 12) and #7 Kansas (14-3, 4-0 Big 12), which tips off at 9:30 PM ET at Phog Allen Fieldhouse.
Led by 6’11” sophomore Perry Jones III (13.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG), the Baylor Bears have raced out to their best start in years and remain one of just three undefeated teams in the nation (Syracuse, Murray State).
On the flip side, the Jayhawks are paced by the dynamic duo of forward Thomas Robinson (17.2 PPG, 12.2 RPG) and guard Tyshawn Taylor (15.5 PPG, 5.2 APG).
According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Kansas opened as a 5.5 point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook but is currently receiving just 27% of all spread bets.
Despite this heavily one-sided betting percentage in favor of visiting Baylor, the line has increased to Kansas -6.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the home favorite Jayhawks.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.
Further strengthening our selection, Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Systems has triggered a Steam Move on Kansas -6 at Pinnacle (37-21, 63%, +11.28 units), which currently ranks as the third-best performing sportsbook in its respective category.
The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
The market-setting sportsbooks currently have this game at 6.5, however be sure to Shop for the Best Line prior to tip-off as this could change.
We are giving up the points, following the sharps and taking a rare home favorite in hopes of keeping College Basketball Marketwatch’s impressive winning streak intact.
Game to Watch (3-3)
Kansas -6.5 (Cris)
Enjoy the games!