College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 3 2011-12

Edition 3 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the third edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 1-1

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Edition 2

Behind 35 points from senior guard Reggie Hamilton, the Golden Grizzlies up-tempo offense wreaked havoc with a questionable Volunteers defense as Oakland defeated Tennessee 89-81. Oakland shot just 43.5% from the floor, however they out-rebounded Tennessee 38-27 and shot a phenomenal 28 of 31 from the free throw line. Although Oakland only needed to cover 3.5 points, by winning straight up they gave us our first marketwatch victory of this young college basketball season. 

NC Greensboro vs. Elon College (12/5 – 7:00 p.m. ET)

In our third marketwatch of the season, we will focus on the Southern Conference matchup between the NC Greensboro Spartans and the Elon Phoenix. Elon is off to a school-best 5-2 start, most recently defeating Navy 51-48 on a last-second three pointer from Austin Hamilton. On the other side, the Spartans dropped to 2-5 after their 73-69 loss to Western Carolina on Saturday.

Elon opened as a 2 point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and, according to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, is currently receiving 80% of all spread bets. Despite this lop-sided betting percentage, the line dropped to -1 offering an excellent example of reverse-line movement.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our  six contributing sportsbooks:


Teams

Market Avg %

Sprtsbk.com

BetUS

Carib

WagerWeb

5Dimes

SIA

Elon
NC GB

80%
20%

92%
8%

92%
8%

95%
5%

57%
43%

70%
30%

88%
12%


Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Systems triggered a Smart Money Play at Heritage (13-10, +2.09 units) as well as a Steam Move from the same book (16-10, +4.78), showing us that sharp money is coming in on NC Greensboro.


The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

The market-setting sportsbooks have this game at 1, but a handful of books are offering the Spartans plus 1.5 points, so make sure to shop around for the best line and grab that number.

Once again we will 
fade a public favorite, follow the sharp money and take NC Greensboro plus the points.

 

Game to Watch (1-1)

NC Greensboro +1.5

 

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