College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 2 2011-12

Edition 2 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the second edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 0-1

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Edition 1

Missouri jumped on Notre Dame early last week, taking a 15-point lead into halftime before cruising to an easy victory. The Tigers shot an impressive 58% from the field and were able to spread the wealth offensively with four players scoring in double figures led by Marcus Denmon with 26. Tim Abromaitis, who had just returned from a four game suspension, led the Fighing Irish with 22 points and 8 rebounds. Unfortunately, Notre Dame shot just 37% as a team and tallied more turnovers than assists in an 87-58 loss.

Oakland vs. Tennessee (11/28 – 9:00 p.m. ET)

In our second marketwatch of the season, we will focus on the matchup between Tennessee and Oakland. Both teams lost in the first round of the NCAA tournament last season and both boast 3-2 records in the early going.

This is a game with a lot of value as public betting has moved this line two full points from Tennessee -1 to -3. In fact with Oakland receiving just 26% of spread wagers, this lop-sided betting plays into our contrarian strategy as games with a betting percentage of less than 30% have a winning percentage of 52.5%.

After getting off to an 0-2 start with losses to Alabama and Arkansas, Oakland has won three straight games including an 89-83 victory over Utah Valley on Friday. The Golden Grizzlies have been led by senior guard Reggie Hamilton who is averaging nearly 18 points in addition to 3 rebounds and 3 assists per game. They have also enjoyed strong contributions from their 6’9″ freshman center Corey Petros, who is averaging a double-double with 10.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game.

On the other side, Tennessee has been tested early this season with losses to perennial powerhouses Duke and Memphis in the Maui Invitational. However, there have been plenty of bright spots for the Volunteers — most specifically sophomore Trae Golden. The 6’1″ guard is averaging 18 points and over 7 assists this season after struggling to get on the court as a freshman. Tennessee has also enjoyed strong play from junior forward Jeronne Maymon who is nearly averaging a double-double with 14.4 points and 9.4 rebounds.

According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Tennessee opened as a 1 point favorite at CRIS and have received 74% of spread wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Teams Market % BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

With the majority of public bets taking Tennessee, the line has moved to -3 at all of the market-setting sportsbooks.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Multiple public books are offering this game at 3.5 points, including SIA, Bodog and Carib. As always, make sure to shop for the best line as we take the home underdog.

Game to Watch (0-1)

Oakland +3.5


Enjoy the games!