Welcome to the twelfth edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 7-4
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 11
In last week’s edition of NCAAB Marketwatch, North Carolina State took a 20-point lead over #4 Duke with just 12 minutes to play, but the Blue Devils were their resilient selves and managed to complete the comeback, winning 78-73. Though the Wolfpack blew their massive lead on the road, they managed to cover the spread of 10.5 with relative ease, pushing this year’s NCAAB Marketwatch to 7-4.
Southern California vs. Arizona (8:30 PM-ET)
This week’s installment of NCAAB Marketwatch goes out west for a Pac-12 battle between the USC Trojans (6-21, 1-13 Pac-12) and the Arizona Wildcats (19-9, 10-5 Pac-12). USC has had an atrocious year, losing 14 of their last 15 and the last 5 overall by an average margin of nearly 17 points per game. Arizona on the other hand has quietly had a successful season after a deep run into the NCAA tournament just a year ago. They boast a 19-9 overall record, losing to quality non-conference opponents in Florida, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, and San Diego State earlier in the year. They also find themselves in the thick of the Pac-12 race at 10-5, 2 games back of California and Washington, and needing to finish the season strong to guarantee a spot in this year’s NCAA tournament.
Arizona is led by a trio of double-digit scorers in Kyle Fogg (12.8 ppg), Solomon Hill (12.5 ppg), and Jesse Perry (12.0 ppg). USC has only one player averaging double-digits in Maurice Jones at 13.7 points per game, after losing junior forward Aaron Fuller for the year due to a shoulder injury. Jones is probable for tonight’s meeting with a hand injury and would be another key loss to the struggling Trojans if he cannot play. Be sure to check out our NCAAB injury page prior to tip-off in case any players’ status changes.
According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Arizona opened up as a 14.5-point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook and is currently receiving 81% of all spread bets and even 80% of moneyline bets.
Despite the heavily one-sided betting percentage on the hometown Wildcats, the line has dropped significantly to 12.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the Trojans, represented by a Smart Money move on USC triggered by BetMania.
USC fits into a system which is included in our Betting Against the Public report, where we look for underdogs on the road receiving double-digit points and only 30% or less of spread bets. NC State also fit these parameters last week and they needed the points, as they could not hold on to a double-digit lead with 6 minutes to play.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sprtsbk.com||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle. Though the percentage of spread bets on Arizona has steadily increased since the line was set, the spread has dropped 2 complete points.
The market-setting sportsbooks currently have this game at 12.5; however, there are some books offering a line of 13, which once again shows how important it is to Shop for the Best Line.
We are taking the big road dog and following the sharp money in hopes of continuing a winning streak for College Basketball Marketwatch.
Game to Watch (7-4)
USC +13 (Diamond)