Welcome to the eleventh edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 6-4
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 10
With Missouri claiming a big victory over Kansas and a showdown with then #6 Baylor just a few days later, the matchup with Oklahoma was a potential trap game for the Tigers in last week’s edition of NCAAB Marketwatch. Led by Marcus Denmon (25 points) and Ricardo Ratliffe (15 points, 10 rebounds), Missouri passed the test with a narrow 71-68 victory at Oklahoma to claim the top spot in the Big 12. However, the Sooners managed to keep the game close late and were able to cover the 5.5 point spread, keeping our Marketwatch record above .500 at 6-4 on the year.
North Carolina State vs. Duke (9:00 PM-ET)
In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we will focus in on the ACC as the unranked North Carolina State Wolfpack (18-7, 7-3 ACC) head to Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, North Carolina to take on #4 Duke Blue Devils (21-4, 8-2 ACC). After taking a tough loss at home to Miami on February 5, Duke recovered in its next game, coming back late and beating UNC in Chapel Hill on a buzzer-beater by freshman phenom Austin Rivers. There was no hangover for the Blue Devils on Saturday (2/11) as they handed Maryland an 18-point loss at home, 73-55.
North Carolina State is coming into Thursday’s (2/16) contest riding a 3-game winning streak, albeit all against the basement of the ACC standings. With wins over Boston College, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech, the Wolfpack find themselves at 7-3 in the conference and a great chance to keep moving up as they play their next 3 games against teams ahead of them in the standings- Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina. They boast a balanced attack, led by junior forward Scott Wood, averaging 13.4 points per game, sophomore forward CJ Leslie (13 ppg, 6.4 rpg), and sophomore guard Lorenzo Brown (11.8 ppg, 6.7 apg).
Duke on the other hand, is led by freshman Austin Rivers (15 ppg), Ryan Kelly (12.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg), and Mason Plumlee (11.6 ppg, 9.9 rpg). They’ve had little trouble with the Wolfpack at home in years past, winning 13 straight at Cameron Indoor, with 7 of the last 8 wins coming by double digits.
According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Duke opened up as a 10.5-point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook and is currently receiving 73% of all spread bets.
Despite the heavily one-sided betting percentage on the hometown Blue Devils, the line has dropped to 10 and has not moved off of that number. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the Wolfpack, represented by a Smart Money move on NC State triggered by Carib Sports.
While there haven’t been any positive Smart Money or Steam Move plays triggered on NC State yet, the Wolfpack fit into a key filter included in our Betting Against the Public report. Our research has found a winning percentage of over 53% betting on teams that are receiving less than 30% of spread bets and getting 10+ points as an underdog. The Wolfpack are currently fitting that mold, getting 10+ points and receiving less than 30% of spread bets.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sprtsbk.com||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle. Even though the percentage of spread bets on Duke has steadily increased, the spread has dropped from the opening number.
The market-setting sportsbooks currently have this game at 10; however, there are some books offering a line of 10.5, which once again shows how important it is to Shop for the Best Line.
We are taking the road dog and following the sharp money in hopes of continuing a winning streak for College Basketball Marketwatch.
Game to Watch (6-4)
NC State +10.5 (Bovada)