Welcome to the tenth edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.
Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.
Overall Record = 5-4
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
Recapping Edition 9
Boise State jumped out to a promising 33-25 lead over San Diego State at halftime, however a 14-0 run early in the second half gave the 17th-ranked Aztecs a 47-40 lead and seemingly all of the momentum. Although Boise State was able to rally late, a missed three-pointer by the Broncos’ Thomas Bropleh with just seconds remaining gave SDSU a 58-56 victory. Fortunately, this close margin of victory was all we needed as Boise State (+11.5) easily covered the spread.
With the win, College Basketball Marketwatch is once again above .500 with a 5-4 record on the year.
Oklahoma vs. Missouri (7:00 PM-ET)
In this week’s edition of Marketwatch, we will turn our focus to the Big 12 as the #4 Missouri Tigers (21-2, 8-2) travel to the Lloyd Noble Center to take on the unranked Oklahoma Sooners (13-9, 3-7).
Led by first-year head coach Frank Haith (who previously coached at Miami), the Tigers have been one of the most surprising and exciting teams in the country. The Tigers utilize their athleticism with a four-guard offense but the catalyst for their offense is senior guard Marcus Denmon who averages 17.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Most recently, the Tigers proved they belong amongst the nation’s elite with a 74-71 win over conference powerhouse Kansas.
On the other side, Oklahoma is led by junior Steven Pledger — a 6’4″ guard averaging a team-best 17.6 points per game. The Sooners also receive strong contributions from fellow classman Romero Osby. After sitting all of last season, the Mississippi State transfer has been a force for the Sooners averaging 12.5 points and 7.8 rebounds.
According to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, Missouri opened up as a 6-point favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook and is currently receiving 68% of all spread bets.
Despite the heavily one-sided betting percentage on the road favorite Tigers, the line has actually dropped down to -5.5. This reverse line movement indicates that sharp money is coming in on the home Sooners.
The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:
|Teams||Market Avg %||Sprtsbk.com||BetUS||Carib||WagerWeb||5Dimes||SIA|
Giving further evidence that sharp money is taking Oklahoma are the system plays on this game. Two smart money moves were triggered on Oklahoma +4.5 including our top performing play from Heritage (58-45, +9.38 units).
The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and All-Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
The market-setting sportsbooks currently have this game at 5; however there are lines available at both sides of this number. Diamond is offering a line of 4.5 while several others are showing 5.5, which once again shows how important it is to Shop for the Best Line.
We are taking the home dog and following the sharp money in hopes of turning last week’s win into a new streak for College Basketball Marketwatch.
Game to Watch (5-4)
Oklahoma +5.5 (SIA)
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