2016 British Open Odds and Preview

2016 British Open Odds and Preview

The 2016 Open Championship, also know as the British Open, will be the 145th playing of this tournament and takes place from July 14 to July 17 at Royal Troon Golf Club in Ayrshire, Scotland. It’s the 9th time this event has been played on this course, with the most recent in 2004.

In this year’s majors so far, Danny Willett was victorious at the Masters at 125:1 odds while Dustin Johnson won the US Open at 15:1 odds. At the Open Championship, it’s the big four of Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson who are favored yet again to win. Here’s a look at each player’s odds:

GolferJuly 12
June 20
Jason Day+770+690
Dustin Johnson+805+1100
Rory McIlroy+940+700
Jordan Spieth+1055+805
Adam Scott+2105+2000
Sergio Garcia+2340+2500
Rickie Fowler+2735+2200
Branden Grace+2740+3300
Justin Rose+3005+2200
Henrik Stenson+3605+3300
Martin Kaymer+4000+6000
Phil Mickelson+4000+3500
Lee Westwood+4500+4400
Louis Oosthuizen+4800+3500
Shane Lowry+4800+5000
Danny Willett+6000+2500
Patrick Reed+6000+5000
Matt Kuchar+6000+6600
Hideki Matsuyama+6600+3800
Zach Johnson+6600+5000
Charl Schwartzel+6600+7000
Bubba Watson+7000+4000
Andy Sullivan+8000+10000
Rafa Cabrera-Bello+8000+10000
Paul Casey+9000+5000
Graeme McDowell+9000+7000
Marc Leishman+9500+6600
Matthew Fitzpatrick+9500+5000
Jim Furyk+9500+6000
Brandt Snedeker+9500+5000
Padraig Harrington+10000+12500
Chris Wood+10000N/A
Alex Noren+10000N/A
Danny Lee+10000+15000
Russell Knox+10000+10000
Scott Piercy+11500N/A
Francesco Molinari+12000+10000
Brendon Todd+15000+15000
Tyrell Hatton+15000N/A
Ernie Els+15000+12500
Nicolas Colsaerts+15000N/A
Gary Woodland+15000+15000
Thomas Bjorn+20000+20000
Kevin Chappell+20000N/A
David Lingmerth+21500+12500
Joost Luiten+22500+15000
Matteo Manassero+22500+18500
Bernd Wiesberger+22500+10000
Billy Horschel+23500+10000
Luke Donald+23500+8000
Soren Kjeldsen+25000N/A
Justin Thomas+25000+6600
Bill Haas+25000+14000
Jason Dufner+25000+12500
Thongchai Jaidee+25000+20000
Angel Cabrera+25000+25000
Thorbjorn Olesen+27500+12500
Emiliano Grillo+28500N/A
Steve Stricker+28500+15000
Jimmy Walker+29000+7500
Zander Lombard+30000N/A
Kevin Na+30000+12500
Kevin Kisner+30000+10000
Thomas Pieters+31000N/A
J.B. Holmes+31500+10000
Webb Simpson+31500+15000
Byeong-Hun An+32000+10000
Richie Ramsay+32000N/A
Jon Rahm+32500N/A
Colin Montgomorie+32500N/A
Russell Henley+32500+20000
Charley Hoffman+33500+15000
Callum Shinkwin+33500N/A
William McGirt+35000N/A
Chris Kirk+35000+11500
Harris English+35000+15000
Jamie Donaldson+36500+13500
Brendan Steele+38500N/A
Richard Sterne+38500N/A
Ryan Palmer+40000+15000
Ross Fisher+40000+20000
Vijay Singh+40000N/A
Anirban Lahiri+43500+20000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+45000N/A
Marc Warren+45000+12500
Justin Leonard+45000+45000
John Daly+45000+45000
Victor Dubuisson+45000+10000
Brandon Stone+48500N/A
George Coetzee+50000+20000
Ryan Moore+50000+15000
Tony Finau+51500N/A
Keegan Bradley+51500+11500
Paul Dunne+52000N/A
Scott Hend+52500N/A
Smylie Kaufman+55000N/A
Robert Rock+55000N/A
Andrew Johnston+55000N/A
Colt Knost+60000N/A
Robert Streb+60000+15000
Harold Varner III+60000N/A
Jeunghun Wang+62500N/A
Tommy Fleetwood+65000+10000
Miguel Angel Jimenez+66500+20000
Matt Jones+68500N/A
Jamie Lovemark+69000N/A
Daniel Summerhays+70000N/A
All Others Listed At+80000 or higherN/A
Sandy Lyle+85000+85000
Paul Lawrie+90000+20000
Mark O'Meara+100000+50000
Jordan Niebrugge+100000+20000
Steven Bowditch+100000+25000
Darren Clarke+200000+30000
Ben Curtis+200000+50000
Brooks KoepkaN/A+4000
David DuvalN/A+50000
Ian PoulterN/A+8500
Cameron TringaleN/A+22000
Ben MartinN/A+25000
Stephen GallacherN/A+25000
Nick FaldoN/A+50000
John SendenN/A+15000
Stewart CinkN/A+50000
David HowellN/A+20000
Eddie PepperellN/A+12500
Hunter MahanN/A+12500
Graham DeLaetN/A+12500
Alexander LevyN/A+20000
Jonas BlixtN/A+15000
Nick WatneyN/A+15000
Retief GoosenN/A+15000
Geoff OgilvyN/A+15000
Tiger WoodsN/A+5000

A couple players I like in this tournament are Sergio Garcia and Chris Wood. While I’m not sure if they’ll come out on top, I think both can make a nice top-10 run, with Sergio Garcia at +240 odds and Chris Wood at +800. Although Sergio has still never won a major, he’s a popular and trendy underdog pick and finished Top-10 in last year’s British Open and this year’s US Open. At CRIS, he’s getting the most tickets (5%) to win it all, but I’m not convinced he can so I’ll settle for him taking another Top-10.

Chris Wood is also getting some attention despite not having a lot of recent experience in majors. He did finish 3rd in The Open back in 2009 but I’m more interested in what he’s done lately. He has won a tournament already this year at the BMW Championship and his style should play well to this course. Again, I’m not sold on him winning the whole thing, but a Top-10 finish is certainly attainable.

While there have been a couple longshots to win majors over the last few years (Zach Johnson, Danny Willett), it’s been the favorites of Spieth, McIlroy, Day and DJ taking home most of the major victories. This is part of the reason why I think there’s better value on betting players to place Top-5 or Top-10.

These top favorites usually receive the most betting support as well. Although Sergio has the most tickets (5%) to win at CRIS, betting is pretty balanced with Scott, Grace, Day, DJ, McIlroy, Spieth, and Stenson all getting 4% of tickets. Over at William Hill in Nevada, Day, DJ, and Sergio are receiving the most tickets to win, with the most money wagered on Day, DJ, and McIlroy.

In terms of tournament matchups at William Hill, the money is on DJ to beat Day, Spieth to beat McIlroy, and Oosthuizen to beat Mickelson. And below shows some of the more notable tournament prop bets available at 5Dimes.

US Open Prop Bets:

Will there be a hole-in-one?
Yes -175, No +135

Will there be a playoff to determine the winner?
Yes +275, No -395

Lowest single round score Over/Under:
Over 65 (+120), Under 65 (-150)

Winning 72-hole score Over/Under:
Over 275.5 (+115), Under 275.5 (-145)

Finally, here’s a look at previous year’s winners and their consensus odds prior to the tournament. I’ve also added in Tiger Woods’ odds to win since oddsmakers continued to overvalue him despite little chance to win another major. He opened at 50:1 to win The Open Championship this year but will not be participating:

YearWinning GolferOdds to WinTiger's Odds to win
2015Zach Johnson+12500+3000
2014Rory Mcilroy+1500+1600
2013Phil Mickelson+1800+800
2012Ernie Els+3050+1200
2011Darren Clarke+12500DNP
2010Louis Oosthuizen+15000+500
2009Stewart Cink+5000+175
2008Padraig Harrington+1600DNP
2007Padraig Harrington+2000+225
2006Tiger Woods+600+600

Dustin Johnson was able to break through in the US Open to win his first career major– will The Open Championship be the breakthrough for a Sergio Garcia, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson or Matt Kuchar?

Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. You can find him on Twitter (@ArsenalDMC) and he can be reached directly at dan.mcguire@actionnetwork.com.

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