2015 PGA Championship Preview

The 97th PGA Championship will take place from August 13th to August 16th at Whistling Straits in Kohler, Wisconsin for the third time since 2004. The previous two PGA’s here went to a playoff: 2004 won by Vijay Singh and 2010 won Martin Kaymer. Recent PGA Championships have proven that longshots can absolutely win, most notably Keegan Bradley in 2011 and Y.E. Yang in 2009:

Year Golfer Pre-tourney Odds
2014 Rory McIlroy +550
2013 Jason Dufner +4000
2012 Rory McIlroy +1400
2011 Keegan Bradley +12500
2010 Martin Kaymer +5000
2009 Y.E. Yang +12500
2008 Padraig Harrington +1600

A little over a month ago, Rory McIlroy was the tourney favorite at +485 but an ankle injury forced him out of the British Open and subsequent tournaments. These absences combined with Jordan Spieth’s continued dominance have caused a shift in the odds. McIlroy is now listed behind Spieth, who was very close to winning the first three majors of the season, and the adjustment is absolutely justified. Below shows the odds to win this year’s PGA Championship at 5Dimes:

Golfer August 10 July 27 July 6
Spieth +640 +480 +620
McIlroy +1115 +655 +485
Day +1170 +1300 +2600
D. Johnson +1355 +1000 +1400
B Watson +1355 +2000 +2700
Rose +1540 +1800 +2200
Fowler +2040 +2300 +2500
Stenson +2235 +2200 +2500
Scott +2340 +1700 +2500
Oosthuizen +3125 +3000 +5000
Koepka +3400 +4500 +6000
Garcia +3525 +3300 +3200
Lowry +5000 N/A N/A
Z. Johnson +5000 +4000 +7000
Matsuyama +5000 +4500 +5000
Woods +5105 +4000 +4000
Furyk +5500 +5000 +5500
Mickelson +6000 +2500 +2400
Kaymer +6000 +3200 +4000
Reed +6000 N/A N/A
Kuchar +6600 +4000 +4500
Snedeker +8500 +5000 +6000
Grace +8500 N/A N/A
Casey +8500 +6500 +5500
Streb +9000 N/A N/A
D Lee +9500 N/A N/A
Lingmerth +10000 N/A N/A
Willett +10000 N/A N/A
J Walker +11500 +4500 +5000
Horschel +12000 +6600 +4500
Bradley +12000 +6600 +8500
Schwartzel +12000 +6000 +8000
Leishman +12000 N/A N/A
J Thomas +15000 N/A N/A
Kisner +15000 N/A N/A
Holmes +15000 N/A N/A
Poulter +16500 +10000 +7500
Haas +18000 +8000 +8000
Westwood +20000 +8000 +7000
Simpson +20000 +8000 +8500
McDowell +20000 +8000 +10000
Donald +20000 +8000 +9000
Na +22000 +12500 N/A
Bowditch +22000 N/A N/A
Dufner +22200 +7500 +9000
F Molinari +25000 +10000 +10000
Harrington +25000 N/A N/A
Watney +28500 +10000 +7500
R Moore +29000 +8000 N/A
Bohn +29000 N/A N/A
Palmer +29000 N/A N/A
Wiseberger +31500 N/A N/A
Woodland +32500 +9000 +9000
Mahan +34500 +8000 +9000
Finau +34500 N/A N/A
Stricker +35000 +10000 +12500
Dubuisson +35000 N/A N/A
Villegas +37500 N/A N/A
Hoffman +38500 N/A N/A
Ogilvy +38500 N/A N/A
Chappell +38500 N/A N/A
C Smith +40000 N/A N/A
Kjeldsen +42000 N/A N/A
Els +42500 +12500 +10500
An +42500 N/A N/A
Warren +42500 N/A N/A
Cabrera-Bello +44500 N/A N/A
Pepperell +45000 N/A N/A
Luiten +48500 N/A N/A
Donaldson +49000 +12500 +10000
B Martin +49000 N/A N/A
Merritt +50000 N/A N/A
C Wood +51500 N/A N/A
Aphibarnrat +52500 N/A N/A
Fleetwood +54500 N/A N/A
Steele +55000 N/A N/A
Todd +55000 N/A N/A
English +55000 N/A N/A
Hatton +58500 N/A N/A
Knox +59000 N/A N/A
Howell III +60000 N/A N/A
Stefani +60000 N/A N/A
Bjorn +78500 +12500 +19500
Jimenez +81500 +15000 +14500
E Molinari N/A N/A +10000
A Cabrera N/A +12500 +10000
Blixt N/A +17500 +10500
DeLaet W/D N/A N/A

According to Jeff Sherman of the LV Superbook at Westgate Hotel in Las Vegas, the money and ticket count is largely on Spieth, DJ, Bubba, and Day:

Bettors are rightfully a bit skeptical about Rory McIlroy this week and he’s listed as a +140 moneyline underdog and +2.5 shot underdog in his tournament matchup against Jordan Spieth, which shows how confident books are in Spieth.

Notable tournament prop bets (5Dimes):

Hole-in-one:  Yes -120, No -120

Playoff:  Yes +265, No -355

Winning Score O/U:  273.5 (over -175/under +145)

Lowest Round O/U: 64.5 (over -160/under +130)

Once again there are a few notable, talented players among the favorites to have never won a major: Henrik Stenson (+2235), Sergio Garcia (+3775), and Dustin Johnson (+1360). Is this the weekend one of these guys finally breaks through?

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Dan McGuire

Dan McGuire is the Operations Manager and soccer specialist at Sports Insights. He can be reached at dan.mcguire@sportsinsights.com.

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