by The Team at SportsInsights.com
Welcome to the 2010-11 edition of NCAA Football Marketwatch. The team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NCAA Football point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketwatch!
Every week we speak directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding. Let’s take a look at what’s in store for this week in College Football.
Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 6
Recapping Week 5
Marketwatch hit two out of three games in Week 5, getting us into the black for the season. Our first win came Thursday when Texas A&M lost to Oklahoma State by 3 points, earning us a half-point victory. In our second game, NC State jumped out to a 17-0 lead over Virginia Tech, but Frank Beamer’s Hokies battled back, outscoring the Wolfpack 20-3 in the fourth quarter for an 11-point victory. Needing a win in our third game for back-to-back undefeated weeks, Penn State got completely manhandled by Iowa, scoring only three points in the 21-point loss for the Nittany Lions, and Marketwatch.
Overall Record = 8-7 (53.3%)
The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.
NCAA Sports Marketwatch Week 6 – Games to Watch
Colorado vs. Missouri (10/9 – 7:00 p.m. ET)
After getting pounded by California, Colorado has bounced back with victories over Hawaii and Georgia in their previous two games. This week, they go on the road to take on #24 Missouri, who had no problems with Miami (OH) in their last game, running out to a 21-point first quarter lead in the 51-13 win.
Missouri opened as a 13-point favorite at Olympic and is currently receiving 69% of spread wagers. However, the line has dropped to -11.5 at most market-setting sportsbooks tracked by Sports Insights. This reverse-line movement has triggered two Smart Money Plays on the Buffaloes, one each at Pinnacle (+10.33 units) and ABC (+5.91 units).
While most books have Colorado at +11.5, there are a couple offering a full point more. So to kick off Week 6, we’ll follow the Smart Money and take Colorado getting the extra point.
Utah vs. Iowa State (10/9 – 7:00 p.m. ET)
Undefeated Utah comes into this week’s game after dominating San Jose State two weeks ago. The Utes were unstoppable on the ground, gaining 272 yards rushing in the 56-3 blowout. Iowa State is also coming off an impressive win, defeating conference-rival Texas Tech, 52-38.
Utah opened as a 7.5-point favorite at CRIS and is currently receiving a staggering 84% of spread bets. Even with the public support, the line has dropped to -6 at most sportsbooks across the sports marketplace. This classic case of reverse-line movement is a key indicator that sharp money is coming down on Iowa State. Sports Insights’ Betting Systems have also found value on the home-underdog, triggering Steam Moves at Pinnacle (+7 units) and Olympic (+7.5 units) on Iowa State.
A scan of the sports marketplace shows most sportsbooks offering this game at +6, with one at +6.5. We’ll go ahead, grab the extra .5 point and take Iowa State.
Iowa State +6.5 (BetOnline)
LSU vs. Florida (10/9 – 7:30 p.m. ET)
LSU looked poised to lose its first game of the season last week. The Tigers had the ball, down four points, on the Tennessee 1-yard line when a mishandled snap looked to end any chances of an LSU victory. However, the Tennessee defense was flagged for having 13 players on field during the potential game-ending play, giving LSU one last shot at the end zone. On the ensuing play, Steven Ridley took a toss over the goal line for the game-winning touchdown.
In one of the most highly-anticipated games of the week, Florida went to Alabama to prove they were still a contender for the SEC title in the post-Tebow era. It turns out they aren’t. The Alabama defense was flat-out dominant, allowing only two Florida field goals while forcing four turnovers in the 31-6 dismantling of the Gators.
Florida opened as a 7.5-point favorite at CRIS and is a significant public favorite. Even with last week’s high-profile loss, 75% of spread bets have come down on the Gators. However, sharp money seems to be falling in the other direction, shrinking the line to -6. Sports Insights’ Betting Systems have triggered five positive Smart Money Plays and one positive Steam Move, at 5Dimes (+9 units), on LSU.
To wrap up Week 6, we’ll fade a massive public favorite and take LSU, getting 6.5 points.
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So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights’ analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 6.
Games to Watch (8-7)
Iowa State +6.5 (BetOnline)
LSU + 6.5
It should be another exciting week of NCAA Football. Keep Sports Marketwatch handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. We’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!
The Team at Sports Insights