College Basketball Marketwatch Edition 4 2011-12

Edition 4 Betting Trends
Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the fourth edition of the 2011-2012 College Basketball Marketwatch, where the team at Sports Insights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the College Basketball point-spread market.

Every week we analyze the sports betting marketplace to pinpoint which games the public is chasing and which the sharps are pounding.

Overall Record = 1-2

The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too good to be true, there is a reason. You’ll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

Recapping Edition 3

Despite 27 points from sophomore guard Trevis Simpson, NC Greensboro shot just 37% from the floor and 58% from the charity stripe in an 80-72 loss to Elon. Behind a well-balanced offensive attack, the Phoenix took a 38-34 lead into halftime and outscored the Spartans 32-22 in the paint.  

Temple vs. Rice (12/19 – 9:00 p.m. ET)

In this week’s edition of marketwatch, we will examine the non-conference matchup between Temple (6-3) and Rice (7-3). Rice is led by Arsalan Kazemi, a 6’7” junior forward averaging a double-double with 14.6 points and 12.3 rebounds per game. On the other side, Temple is led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Ramone Moore (17.8 ppg) and Khalif Wyatt (15.8 ppg).

Temple opened as a 5.5-point favorite at the market-setting Cris sportsbook and, according to Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Trends, is currently receiving 79% of all spread bets. Despite this one-sided betting percentage, the line has dropped to -3.5. This reverse-line movement indicates that sharp money is taking Rice.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of spread wagering action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks:

Sports Insights’ College Basketball Betting Systems triggered a Steam Move at Phoenix (16-7, +7.56 units) which once again indicates that sharp bettors are taking Rice.

Further bolstering the value of Rice is the lop-sided spread betting percentage. In our article College Basketball and Betting Against the Public, we reveal that since 2008 teams receiving less than 25% of spread wagers have a winning percentage of 53.2%.

The line graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the spread betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

The market-setting sportsbooks have this game at 3.5, however a handful of books are offering Rice plus 4 points, so make sure to shop around for the best line and grab that number.

Once again we will fade a public favorite, follow the sharp money and take Rice plus the points.

Game to Watch (1-2)

Rice +4

Enjoy the games!