NHL Marketwatch Edition 9 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 6-2, +6.16 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Columbus Blue Jackets, picked up a huge 3-2 shootout victory at the Bell Centre against the heavily favored Montreal Canadiens. The Jackets held a 2-1 lead for much of the game until Montreal’s Brian Gionta scored with less than two minutes left to force overtime. However, the underdog Jackets rebounded in a big way when captain Rick Nash scored the lone shootout goal to lift Columbus to the big upset win.

With the victory, NHL Marketwatch notches its fourth consecutive victory to improve to 6-2 (+6.16 units) on the season.

New Jersey Devils +141 over Florida Panthers

With the NHL season now in full swing, the New Jersey Devils (15-13-1, 31 points) travel to the Bank Atlantic Center to face the Florida Panthers (16-9-5, 37 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

After struggling to score goals for much of the season, the Devils’ once anemic offense has come alive of late to propel New Jersey to three wins over their past four games.

The turnaround has been due in large part to the improved play of New Jersey’s biggest stars, i.e. Zach Parise (9-13-22), Patrik Elias (9-15-24) and Ilya Kovalchuk (9-10-19). However, the Devils don’t lean exclusively on their big three up front. In fact, New Jersey remains one of the most offensively balanced teams in the league, boasting seven different players with at least six goals.

Defensively, New Jersey has leaned on both Johan Hedberg (9-5-1, 2.37 GAA, .913 SV %) and future Hall of Famer Martin Brodeur (6-8-0, 3.18 GAA, .884 SV %) between the pipes, rotating the veteran netminders seemingly each game to keep them fresh.

In addition, the Devils’ commitment to backchecking, blocked shots and forward support under new head coach Peter DeBoer has turned New Jersey into the best penalty killing team in the league, clicking at an absurd rate of 92.8%.

Conversely, while the Panthers have become one of the Cinderella stories in the NHL this season, coming out of nowhere to lead the Southeast Division, they have lost two in a row including a 6-1 shellacking their last time out against the Rangers. Also, tonight’s matchup marks Florida’s first home game after a long road trip, which oftentimes makes for a disadvantage. In turn, the Devils are coming off a 5-4 victory over the Lightning last night and don’t have to travel far to face the Panthers.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, New Jersey opened at +138 (Pinnacle) and is currently receiving 44% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

The mostly lopsided betting on home favorite Florida has pushed the moneyline up from +138 to +141. Also, a plethora of notable moves have come in on the underdog Devils, highlighted by a pair of positiveSmart Money plays on New Jersey +123 by ABC (9-7, 56%, +3.26 units) and New Jersey +125 by Cata/VegasVic (9-8, 52%, +4.35 units).

In addition, we have also received a Steam Move on New Jersey +130 by SBG (7-5, 58%, +0.46 units), which is currently near the top of the list in terms of NHL Betting Systems this year.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how themoneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

We are fading the heavily favored Panthers and going with the underdog Devils to pick up a big road victory and keep NHL Marketwatch on the winning track.
Games to Watch (6-2, +6.16 units)
New Jersey Devils +141

Enjoy the games!