NHL Marketwatch Edition 8 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 5-2, +4.82 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Phoenix Coyotes, secured a resounding 4-1 road victory against the heavily favored Chicago Blackhawks. Veteran winger Ray Whitney led the offensive attack with a goal and two assists, while journeyman goaltender Mike Smith stopped 24 of the 25 shots he faced.

With the victory, NHL Marketwatch notches its third consecutive win to improve to 5-2 (+4.82 units) on the season.

Columbus Blue Jackets +134 over Montreal Canadiens

With the NHL season now in full swing, the Columbus Blue Jackets (7-16-3, 17 points) invade the Bell Centre to face the Montreal Canadiens (11-11-5, 27 points), with the puck being dropped at 7:30 PM ET.

After starting off the season a horrific 0-7-1, the Blue Jackets have rebounded to post a respectable 7-9-2 record over the past 18 games.

Columbus’s overlooked resurgence has been paced by the play of their big name stars, most notably Rick Nash (8-11-19), Vaclav Prospal (6-14-20) and defensemen James Wisniewski (1-11-12) and Fedor Tyutin (2-10-12). In addition, offseason acquisition Jeff Carter has returned after missing much of the season to provide a much needed offensive spark. The perennial 30-goal scorer has notched five points over his past seven games.

Defensively, career back-up Curtis Sanford has leap-frogged the struggling Steve Mason to become the team’s #1 goaltender, posting impressive stats since taking over full-time between the pipes (4-3-2, 2.10 GAA, .926 SV %).

Conversely, while the Canadiens remain a public favorite (especially in Canada), they have yet to piece together a consistent string of success this season. The main reason for Montreal’s lackluster play has been their year-long struggle to light the lamp. They currently rank near the bottom of the league in terms of goals per game (2.4) and also own the 7th worst power-play in the NHL (12.2 %).

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Columbus opened at +147 (Pinnacle) and is currently receiving just 33% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA

Despite the continued hammering of home favorite Montreal, a plethora of notable moves have come in on the underdog Blue Jackets, highlighted by a pair of positive Smart Money plays on Columbus +140 by SIA (9-9, 50%, +1.88 units) and Columbus +130 by 5Dimes (13-5, 72%, +8.82 units).

In addition, we have also received a Steam Move on Columbus +150 by Cris [Cigar] (36-27, 57%, +5.84 units), which is currently at the top of the list in terms of NHL Betting Systems this year.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how themoneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

We are fading the heavily favored Canadiens and going with the underdog Blue Jackets to pick up a big road victory and keep NHL Marketwatch on the winning track.
Games to Watch (5-2, +4.82 units)
Columbus Blue Jackets +134

Enjoy the games!