NHL Marketwatch Edition 7 2011-12

Daniel Fabrizio
President
SportsInsights.com

Welcome to the 2011-12 edition of NHL Sports Marketwatch, where the team at SportsInsights gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the sports marketplace.

Overall Record= 4-2, +3.48 units

Hockey can be a very profitable sport to bet on when you base it off moneyline odds, especially when betting underdogs. The plus odds are a reason that NHL moneyline dogs can show value over time. Most people like to win and therefore overvalue winning teams. Our selections on moneyline underdogs will normally win less than 50%, but the plus odds payoff makes it a profitable investment.

Recapping Last Week  

Last week’s NHL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Toronto Maple Leafs, picked up a huge 7-1 blowout victory on the road against the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Leafs got goals from six different players, led by center Tyler Bozak (2 goals, 1 assist), while goaltender Jonas Gustavsson stopped 27 of the 28 shots he faced. With the victory, NHL Marketwatch improves to 4-2 (+3.48 units) on the season.

Phoenix Coyotes +134 over Chicago Blackhawks

With the NHL season now in full swing, the Phoenix Coyotes (12-7-3, 27 pts) travel to the United Center to face the Central Division leading Chicago Blackhawks (14-7-3, 31 pts), with the puck being dropped at 8:30 PM ET.

After starting off the season a respectable 5-3-2, the Coyotes have hit their stride this month, posting an impressive 7-4-1 record in November. And while Phoenix remains in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive production, they have quickly become one of the better defensive teams in the league, boasting the 12th best goals against average (2.5) and 4th best penalty kill (88.9 %) in the NHL.

Phoenix’s defensive resurgence has been due in large part to the spirited play of journeyman goaltender Mike Smith, who seems to have finally found a home in the desert. His numbers are impressive (11-4-3 record, 2.19 GAA, .933 SV %) and Smith has been hot of late, having posted a shutout against rival Dallas his last time out.

Conversely, while the Blackhawks remain one of the most high-powered offenses in the league (Chicago ranks 3rd overall in goals per game), they have struggled to keep the puck out of their net and currently rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of goals against. In addition, their penalty kill ranks dead last in the league, with the Blackhawks having killed just 74% of opponents’ power plays this season.

According to Sports Insights’ NHL Betting Trends, Phoenix opened at +131 (Pinnacle) and is currently receiving just 17% of moneyline wagers.

The public betting chart below, which is available on our Live Odds 3.0 page, shows a breakdown of moneyline action on this game from our six contributing sportsbooks.

Teams Market % Sprtsbk.com BetUS Carib WagerWeb 5Dimes SIA
PHOENIX
CHICAGO
17%
83%
18%
82%
27%
73%
3%
97%
1%
99%
41%
59%
11%
89%

The heavy, one-sided public action on Chicago has pushed the moneyline up to +134 on Phoenix (Pinnacle).

Despite the lopsided betting, a pair of positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on Phoenix +120 by Olympic (11-9, 55%, +2.82 units) and Phoenix +115 by 5Dimes (11-4, 73%, +7.87 units), which have historically been two of the more successful NHL Betting Systems in recent years.

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how themoneyline betting trends and betting system plays have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

We are fading the heavily favored Blackhawks and going with the upstart Coyotes to pick up a big road victory and keep NHL Marketwatch on the winning track.

Games to Watch (4-2, +3.48 units)
Phoenix Coyotes +134

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