NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2011-12

By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting. is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Saturday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

NFL Marketwatch Performance

Recap of Last Week’s “Game to Watch” (3-3 = 50.0%)

Last week’s NFL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the St. Louis Rams couldn’t stay with the high-flying Packers, dropping the Marketwatch to 3-3 (50.0%) for the season. Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.  

Sports Insights’ Square Plays and Best Bets have gotten off to a combined 19-14 record this season.  Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season, producing a combined winning percentage of about 55% with NFL Squares at 57%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

View Last Week’s Column

The betting public had a neutral weekend last week, going 3-3 once again in lopsided-bet games (which is a “loser” due to the vig that the sportsbooks collect).  This brings the public’s cumulative record to a surprisingly respectable 25-23 (52.1%) in lopsided-bet games this year.  The Packers, Ravens and Jets made public bettors happy — but the Steelers, Saints and Patriots disappointed the public.  Over the past six seasons, the public has been correct only about 48% of the time against the spread in “lopsided-bet” games, which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Our team of analysts circled this game when the line first went up.  This game is showing one of the most lopsided-bet percentages we can remember in a long time.  Including teasers and parlays, only about 8% of the bets are taking the home underdog Minnesota Vikings.  A quick call to one of my industry contacts, an offshore risk manager, confirmed the heavy action on Green Bay, “We’d certainly like to see Minnesota cover the spread, although we’re currently keeping the line steady because some sharps are taking the Vikings.”

In addition to very one-sided betting, this game is currently the heaviest-bet game of the week.  We like this combination of one-sided and heavy betting action.  In addition, the line movement verifies the existence of “smart money” on the Vikings.  Pinnacle and CRIS opened this game at Minnesota +9.5, but even with almost every bet taking the Packers, the line has dropped to Minnesota +8 or +9 (depending on the book).  This means some big money and/or sharps are taking the Vikings — countering the public bets on Green Bay.  We will “bet against the public” and follow the lead of the “smart money.”

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the NFL Betting TrendsNFL Betting System plays and weather alerts have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Here are some other reasons why we like the Vikings:

  • This is a big divisional rivalry.
  • Minnesota will definitely be “up” for this game as a “live” home dog.
  • Green Bay is the only undefeated team in the NFL.  We’ll “sell” the Packers at this “high.”
  • Minnesota is just 1-5 — so we will buy them “low.”
  • Minnesota was blown out last week 39-10 by Chicago.  The public may be focusing on last week’s blowout too much.  Besides this game, the other Vikings’ losses have all been by a touchdown or less.
  • Although the Vikings are just 1-5, they have been outscored just 124-145 (Points For – Points Against).  

If you shop around, you can grab the Vikings at +10 some “public books.”

Minnesota Vikings +10 (BetUS)

If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership.  It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest Real Time OddsNFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio