10/14/2011 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio
The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of SportsInsights.com, with the goal of providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting.“ SportsInsights.com is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.
The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Saturday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch
NFL Marketwatch Performance
Recap of Last Week’s “Game to Watch” (3-2 = 60.0%)
Last week’s NFL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Carolina Panthers covered the spread versus the New Orleans Saints — and nearly won outright! It took a last-minute connection from Drew Brees to Pierre Thomas for the Saints to pull the game out, 30-27. The Marketwatch now stands at 3-2 (60.0%) for the season. Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.
Sports Insights’ Square Plays and Best Bets have gotten off to a combined 18-10 record this season. Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square Plays, Best Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season, producing a combined winning percentage of about 55% with NFL Squares at 57%. Check out the SportsInsights.com Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.
The betting public had a neutral weekend last week, going 3-3 in lopsided-bet games (which is a “loser” due to the vig that the sportsbooks collect). This brings the public’s cumulative record to a surprisingly respectable 22-20 (52.4%) in lopsided-bet games this year. New Orleans and the New York Giants disappointed the public, but several “fan favorites” covered the spread, including: Green Bay and San Diego. Over the past six seasons, the public has been correct only about 48% of the time against the spread in “lopsided-bet” games, which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.
St. Louis Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
This game falls into the “keep your Maalox nearby” category. Can you guess which team we will select? This match-up pits one of the NFL’s best teams (Green Bay 5-0) against one of the NFL’s worst teams (St. Louis 0-4). Both the point spread and the betting percentages are lopsided. The Green Bay Packers opened as 14 point favorites. Heavy betting on the Packers pushed the line up as high as St. Louis +16 earlier in the week, but it is generally available at St. Louis +15, currently.
The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the NFL Betting Trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.
As our readers know, the Sports Insights philosophy targets contrarian value. A big 80% of bets is landing on the heavily-favored Packers. We’ll “bet against the Public” and take the big points and the Rams as a huge underdog. The media is hyping the Packers as the best team in the NFL. The Packers enter the game undefeated — while the Rams are winless. All of these factors indicate that there may be “value” on St. Louis. Some other thoughts on why we like the Rams:
- Although the Rams are winless, they have had a tough schedule, playing the Eagles (when they were still the “Dream Team!”), Redskins, Giants & Ravens.
- We like the line value created by the heavy one-way betting on Green Bay.
- We feel like we are “buying low” on the Rams, and “selling high” on the Packers.
- The Rams are coming off of a “bye week.”
If you shop around, you can grab the Rams at +15.5 at some “public books” such as Bodog and SportsInterAction (SIA).
If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership. It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest Real Time Odds, NFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!