NFL Marketwatch Week 5 2011-12

By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. The column takes an academic and contrarian view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in this article published in the Wall Street Journal, entitled, “A Contrarian’s Guide to Football Betting. is a leader in the sports information industry and has published a popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books as well as recent articles comparing the Sports Marketplace to the Financial Markets and Contrarian Sports Investing: Why It Works.

The column is normally published every Saturday morning. Readers can sign-up to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Saturday mornings. Sign-up to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Recap of Last Week’s NFL Action

The NFL Marketwatch “Game to Watch” selection, the Jacksonville Jaguars, stayed in the game with the New Orleans Saints but eventually did not cover the spread.  Up until the end of the game, it appeared that Jacksonville had a chance for a “backdoor cover” — but their loss against the spread drops the Marketwatch to 2-2 (50.0%) for the season.  Since its inception more than six years ago, Sports Insights’ popular NFL Marketwatch column has produced a winning percentage of about 57%.  

Sports Insights’ Square Plays and Best Bets have gotten off to a combined 14-8 record this season.  Last season, Sports Insights’ contrarian methods of Betting Against the Public, including Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch had a solid NFL season, producing a combined winning percentage of about 55% with NFL Squares at 57%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

View Last Week’s Column

Tracking Public Performance

The betting public had a good weekend last week, going 6-4 in lopsided-bet games.  This brings the public’s cumulative record for the season to a respectable 19-17 (52.8%) in lopsided-bet games.  Atlanta and Minnesota were some of the teams that disappointed the public, but many “fan favorites” covered the spread, including: New England, Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit and the New York Giants.  Over the past six season, the public has been correct only about 48% of the time against the spread in “lopsided-bet” games, which are defined as games having 65% or more bets on one team.

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

Our offshore contacts confirmed that “early sharp action pushed the line down from a generally-available 7 down to 6.5 or 6” in this match-up between the Saints and the Panthers.  Very early lines opened at Panthers +7, but early bets pushed the line all the way down to Panthers +5.5.  Currently, the line is available at Panthers +6 or +6.5 due to the constant pounding of bets on the favored-Saints.  If you shop around, you can still find the Panthers +7 at some “public books” such as Bodog and SportsInterAction (SIA).

The line history graph below, which is available to all Premium and Premium Pro members, shows how the NFL Betting Trends have affected line movement for this game at Pinnacle.

Sports Insights’ key sports investing indicators caused our analysts to circle this game for several reasons:

  • At the time of this writing, only about 20% of the point spread bets are landing on the Panthers.
  • The line movement indicates that “Smart Money” is on Carolina.
  • This game is currently one of the heavier-bet games of the week.
  • Sports Insights’ research shows that larger point spreads (especially 7 points of more) create value for the underdog.
  • Carolina is a home underdog.

Although the Carolina Panthers are just 1-3, the Panthers have been competitive in all of their games.  Rookie QB Cam Newton adds some good, positive energy to this team.  We will follow the “early sharps” and fade the public — and take a live home dog.  Take the Panthers and try to get the +7 points.

Carolina Panthers +7 (SIA)

If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try Sports Insights’ Premium Pro Membership.  It should be another exciting NFL weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest Real Time OddsNFL Betting Trends and NFL Betting System Picks. I’ll be back next Saturday with the new edition of NFL Marketwatch. Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio