NFL Marketwatch Week 8 2010-11

10/29/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 8                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (11-5-1 = 68.8%) 

The Public continued its losing ways, going 2-3 in lopsided-bet games having over 65% of the bets on one team.  The Public was “surprised” by New Orleans’ outright loss — as well as Baltimore struggling to barely win in OT.  In addition, Pittsburgh did not cover “against the spread.”  New England and KC helped the Public to avoid a disastrous week by covering their games.  This leaves the Public at a weak 20-29 = 40.8% for the season.

With the Public struggling once again, it was a good weekend for Betting Against the Public in the NFL, with SportsInsights Square PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch combining for a 6-3 record.  The NFL Marketwatch continued its winning ways, with its “ugly selection” of the Buffalo Bills covering the point spread by taking Baltimore to overtime.  This stretches the Marketwatch winning streak to eight wins in a row over the past several weeks.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research a profitable strategy and then stick with their approach.  After a hot streak, we want to emphasize that bettors shouldstay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Carolina Panthers vs. St. Louis Rams

This game pits two of the weaker teams in the NFL.  Carolina is just 1-5 while St. Louis is 3-4.  During the early part of the NFL season, the Rams have shown sports fans that they can play competitive football.  We note, however, that St. Louis was a lowly 1-15 last year.  One of our offshore contacts noted that, “Sometimes, the best values on the board are not on the marquee match-ups of the week.”  

At the time of this writing, this game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week, with 80% of the side bets taking the slightly-favored Rams.  However, even with 4 out of 5 bets taking the Rams at home, the line has edged in the opposite direction.  The line opened at Rams -3 -120 at Pinnacle, but the associated odds/vig has moved in the direction of the Panthers.  The reverse line movement on the big key number of three is an indication of big money counterbalancing the public bets on the Rams.

Let’s “Bet Against the Public” and follow the big, “smart money.”  Keep an eye on this line so that you don’t miss the big key number of three.  Currently, most books are at Carolina +3, but different books have different vigs/odds associated with the point spread.  Right now, Sports Interaction has one of the best lines/odds for Carolina Panther bettors, but remember to shop around for the best line.

Carolina Panthers +3 (Bet at SIA +3)  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio