NFL Marketwatch Week 5 2010-11

10/8/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 5                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (6-5-1 = 54.5%) 

NFL Week 4 was a generally flat week for the sportsbooks.’s betting trends analysis shows that there were relatively few lopsided-bet games: just five games.  In these five games with over 65% of the bets on one teams, the Public went 3-2.  Overall, however, it was a decent weekend for Betting Against the Public in the NFL, with both SportsInsights Square Plays and Marketwatch having a positive weekend. The sportsbooks made up for the Public’s 3-2 week by collecting the vig and being on the right side in the heavier-bet games.  For the season, that makes the Public 15-19 = 44.1%. Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on a featured game of the day.

Our Games to Watch got off the ground and had a nice 3-0 week against the spread.  Although the Public fared well in general, our selections also happened to do well.  As we said last week, the breaks were bound to come our way.  And — by sticking with our approach, we expect to find value in the long-run.  Our motto is to find a real edge — and stick with the plan and strategy.  It’s about patience and believing in your research. View Last Week’s Column

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Visit our new sports information blog for free daily updates including Betting Trends Reports, Opening Lines Reports, and a featured game of the day. Your bankroll will thank you!

NFL Week 5 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Washington Redskins vs. Green Bay

This game remains one of the heaviest-bet games of the week — and also one of the most lopsided-bet games.  Five out of every six bets — or 85% — of the bets are taking the visiting Green Bay Packers.  This is a good game to “bet against the Public” and grab some good line value.  The line opened with Green Bay as a very slight favorite of GB -1.  However, the constant pounding of bets down on the Packers has moved the line to GB -2.5, with some of our favorite books at GB -3.  This is huge line value at the “key  number of 3.”  

In addition to line value and betting against the public, this match-up takes advantage of current media and public perceptions.  Sports fans view Green Bay as one of the NFL’s elite teams and the Redskins as mediocre, at best.  In the NFL, home field advantage and point spreads are a great equalizer.

Washington Redskins +3 (Bet at Bodog +3) 

Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Our offshore contact circled this game because early sharp money reversed the line.  CRIS opened this game at Bucs +7, but early sharp action on the Bucs moved the line to Bucs +6.5.  Our readers know that we like to follow the coattails of the smart, sharp, money.  SportsInsights Smart Money analysis also triggered plays on Tampa Bay (Phoenix 15-7). You may want to act soon and grab Tampa Bay +7 while it’s still around.

Both the Bucs and Bengals started their seasons 2-0, before falling to 2-1.  The Bucs were demolished 38-13 by the Steelers two weeks ago, and last week had a bye, giving them time to lick their wounds and prepare for this week’s game. The Bengals lost a close game last week, at Cleveland.  We’ll “buy” the Tampa Bay Bucs after their bad loss two weeks ago to bounce back against the high-flying Cincy offense led by Carson Palmer.  We note that the Bucs currently have a solid pass defense — 10th best in the league.

Tampa Bay Bucs +7  (Bet at Bodog +7)

Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints

The Arizona Cardinals still don’t get any respect — and this is particularly true with their mediocre 2-2 start to the 2010 season, getting outscored 58-118.  Based on the betting action, it appears that public bettors are continuing to ride the Super Bowl Champion New Orleans Saints’ bandwagon.  This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week, with almost 90% of the bets (including teasers and parlays) taking the Super Bowl Champs.

Although the Saints are 3-1, their largest margin of victory is just 5 points in Week 1, a 14-9 victory over Minn.  The Saints also beat San Francisco by 3 points (Week 2) and beat Carolina by 2 points last week.  In summary, The Saints’ 3-1 record isn’t as good as it looks.  Recall that Arizona won their division last year with a 10-6 record.  The Cardinals, as a 7-point home underdog, look like a good value.

The line opened at Arizona +6.5 but has edged up to Arizona +7 — because the public is taking the Saints on almost every bet.  Grab the line value on the “key-seven” number and the home dog.

Arizona Cardinals +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch.

Games to Watch (6-5-1 = 54.5%)

Washington Redskins +3 (Bet at Bodog +3) 
Tampa Bay Bucs +7  (Bet at Bodog +7)
Arizona Cardinals +7

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep NFL Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time oddsbetting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio