NFL Marketwatch Week 10 2010-11

11/12/2010 11:01 AM EST
By Daniel Fabrizio

The NFL Marketwatch column is written by Daniel Fabrizio, founder and president of, with the goal of  providing sports betting enthusiasts unprecedented insight into the NFL point spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with the NFL Marketwatch. The column is published every Saturday morning. Readers can signup to receive an advance copy of the NFL Marketwatch, which is distributed via email on Friday mornings. Signup to Receive the Early Edition of the NFL Sports Marketwatch

Every week, Daniel Fabrizio speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest online sportsbooks — about which games the public is chasing and the “sharps” are pounding. He also utilizes the award-winning betting tools and betting systems found on to uncover hidden value in the coming weekend’s games. If the NFL Marketwatch has helped you to improve your handicapping skills and bottom line, then try’s Premium Pro membership. You’ll earn more money by having full access to the sports betting industry’s most advanced betting information, including real time odds and betting trends data from six (6) online sportsbooks.

SportsInsights takes an academic view of the sports marketplace, as detailed in our popular and best-selling Sports Investing series of books and our recent article comparing the sports marketplace to the financial markets.

NFL Marketwatch – NFL Week 10                                      

Recapping Last Week

Overall Regular Season (11-7-1 = 61.1%) 

The Public had a good weekend, going 4-2 in lopsided-bet games, having 65% or more bets on one team.  The Public rode several big names, such as Green Bay, Indy, New Orleans & the Giants to victories “against the spread” (ATS).  The Public’s two losses ATS in lopsided-bet games were with the Jets and Patriots.  The Public’s 4-2 week picked the Public up to a more respectable, but still losing record of 28-34 = 45.2% for the season in lopsided-bet games.  Historically, this lopsided-bet “trend” has been an important part of SportsInsights’ members and their handicapping process.

SportsInsights contrarian methods had a mediocre weekend, reflecting the Public’s good week.  Still, SportsInsights’ Betting Against the Public methods in the NFL, includingSquare PlaysBest Bets, and Marketwatch are having a good season, producing a combined winning percentage of almost 60%.  Check out the Blog for timely betting trends reports, plus original analysis on featured games and strategies.

SportsInsights stresses that sports investors should research profitable methods and then stick with their approach.  After both hot or cold streaks, we want to emphasize that bettors should stay the course and bet the same amounts.  View Last Week’s Column

What’s the Best Sportsbook to Bet Against the Public?
I get this question all the time from readers.  If you’re planning on “Betting Against the Public” this football season, BetUS is a must-have sportsbook.  BetUS is a “public” book in the sense they get a lot of smaller, public bettors who love the bonuses, freebies, and marketing.  With so many public bettors, BetUS leans their lines and as a result, they consistently offer the best underdog lines and the most generous depositing bonuses. You’ll get an extra 0.5 point to 1.0 point every time you make a bet.  Visit BetUS today, it’s where I bet!

NFL Week 10 Sports Marketwatch – Game of the Week takes a unique approach to sports betting.  We don’t handicap games – we handicap the sports betting marketplace. collects betting trends from major online sportsbooks and tracks real-time odds to pinpoint profitable betting opportunities. By closely monitoring line movement and SportsInsights’ unique Public betting trends statistics, we uncover the most profitable plays.

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This week’s selection is one of the most lopsided-bet games of the week.  Just 18% of the bets are landing on the visiting Carolina Panthers, with a huge number of bettors putting their hard-earned money on the 5-3 Bucs.  We’ll “bet against the Public” and go with the “ugly” play — and the 1-7 Panthers.

The sports marketplace for this game also reflects “reverse line movement,” which our readers know we like as an indicator of “big, smart, money.”  Even with almost every bet taking the Bucs, the line has moved from its opener of Bucs -7 to Bucs -6.5.  One of our offshore contacts circled this game and verified that his, “sports book is taking a large number of bets on Tampa Bay — but a few of the sharper bettors are taking Carolina.”  

Our readers know that we like to “bet against the Public” while following the “smart money.”  In addition, we like this play on Carolina for several other reasons:

  • If you shop around, several books are starting to move Carolina back to a big +7 points.
  • This is a divisional match-up, which teams often “get up” for.
  • Although Tampa Bay is 5-3, their margin of “points for” minus “points against” is a mediocre -33.
  • Tampa Bay has had one blowout win (although over Carolina!), with their other four wins coming by a maximum margin of 3 points as follows: 3, 3, 1, 3.

Currently, several books have moved the line back to Carolina +7, but remember to shop around for the best line and best odds.

Carolina Panthers +7 (Bet at CRIS +7-110)  

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep your eye on the NFL Marketwatch game of the week and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time odds,betting trends, and winning betting systems picks.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.  Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio