NFL Marketwatch Week 9 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 9
11/02/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 9

Recapping Last Week

All sportsbooks reported significantly lower handle sizes in NFL Week 8, attributed to no Sunday Night game – and a lack of marquee match-ups. NFL Week 8 was a losing endeavor for the sportsbooks, losing 1-2% of their handle. There were only a couple of big decisions on Sunday. Indy steamrolling Carolina, Pittsburgh handing it to Cincy, plus New Orleans pounding San Fran all contributed to a losing day for the books. Miami pulling off a back-door cover, and Detroit beating Chicago outright – helped break up a lot of “junk” (parlay + teasers), which saved the sportsbooks from a very long day of payouts on Monday.

The Public posted their seventh consecutive losing week. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. Remember when you factor in “the juice,” going .500 is losing. For the season that makes the Public 27-36-4 = 42.8%. Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-1 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 14-9-1 = 60.1%.

View Last Week’s Column

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Looking Ahead to this Week
Look for handle sizes to bounce back in NFL Week 9 as the Public continues to pound the “cash register” called New England. The highly anticipated New England/Indy match-up will be the most heavily wagered game of the week. The scary thing for the books is how one-sided the betting on this game has become, 75% of the bets placed on the Patriots/Colt game are coming in on NE.

We anticipate New England, Washington, Green Bay, and Dallas to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to bounce back as the Public continues to pound the Patriots. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Bucs

The line managers we spoke with said that sharp bettors have been getting down on Tampa Bay. The Bucs lost a tough 24-23 decision to a solid Jax team last week. They have also had a very difficult schedule, losing to Indy, Detroit, and Seattle – BUT beating playoff contenders such as Carolina and Tennessee. TB’s 4-4 record is definitely a “quality” 4-4!

The sports marketplace is valuing TB and Arizona fairly closely, making the home team Bucs just a -3.5 point favorite. However, the smart money sees TB as a team in a different category than the 3-4 Cardinals. Although the Cards are no longer a league “doormat,” they aren’t yet a playoff team. The sharps are getting down on TB – and so are we.

Tampa Bay Bucs -3.5

San Diego Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

The Public is solidly on San Diego, alerting us to the Vikings as a good value play. SportsInsights’ exclusive “Betting Percentages” show that more than 8 out of 10 bets are coming in on the rejuvenated Chargers.

There are also several other factors that make the Vikings look like a solid play. We like the fact that we can use the Chargers to “sell high” after their blow out win over Houston. In addition, Minny is a home dog getting their starting QB Jackson back.

Finally, the Vikings are a much better team than their 2-5 record indicates. They have scored about the same number of points that they have given up – and have had a difficult schedule, playing the likes of Dallas, GB, Detroit, KC – and an under-rated Eagle team.

Minnesota Vikings +7.5  (SIA)

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles

This is one of those examples of a “soft line” that seems too good to be true. When you see a seemingly soft line like this – there is usually “value” on the other side! We see value on the Eagles.

The Public is overwhelmingly on Dallas, with more than 9 out of every 10 bets coming in on the Cowboys at the time of this writing. This is moving the line off of the “key 3” number, giving some good value to contrarian sports investors.

Another reason to like Philly is that McNabb, although inconsistent, has generally been looking better and better every week. The Eagles are coming off an impressive win over Minny and we like taking Home Dogs with a “soft line.” Take the Eagles +3.5.

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5  (SIA)

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 9.

Games to Watch (14-9-1)
Tampa Bay Bucs -3.5
Minnesota Vikings +7.5 (SIA)
Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (SIA)

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio