NFL Week 4 – Early Moves
9/26/2008 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports MarketWatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports MarketWatch!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports MarketWatch – NFL Week 4
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 3 was a good day to be a sportsbook and a bad day to be the Public. JC, head lineman at Skybook, put it best, “The ball bounced our way on Sunday.” All sportsbooks reported retaining over 2-4% of their handle. New England losing outright as -13 point favorite and the NY Giants, also 13 point favorites, needing overtime to defeat winless Cincinnati were big games for the books. But the game that really turned things around for the sportsbooks was Tampa Bay, pulling out a miracle against the Chicago Bears. It would have a huge day for the sportsbook had they not given back a lot of early gains on the Sunday Night game.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public took a bloodbath going 3-7, making the Public 12-16 for the season. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis continued its winning ways, going 3-0, 6-3 = 66.7% for the season. We’re back on the positive side and look forward to padding the bankroll.
View Last Week’s Column:
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NFL WEEK 4
We anticipate Denver, Buffalo, and San Diego to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit SportsInsights.com to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Week 4 Sports MarketWatch – Games to Watch (6-3 = 66.7%)
213 San Diego Chargers at 214 Oakland Raiders
The public is overwhelmingly on San Diego in this match-up. The constant pounding of bets on San Diego (75% of sides and a huge 90% of teasers and parlays), has pushed the line off of the “key” number of 7. This is creating a nice value of Oakland +7.5 instead of the opener of +7.
We like cashing in on San Diego’s impressive Monday Night win over the Jets. Oakland getting +7.5 points at home looks like a great value — especially in a tough divisional match-up. Let’s “bet against the public” and take the home dog.
Oakland Raiders +7.5 (SIA)
211 Buffalo Bills at 212 St. Louis Rams
Our offshore contacts circled this game due to Smart Money coming in on St. Louis. Including teaser and parlays, almost 80% of all bets are on Buffalo. Even so, early, and big Smart Money landed on St. Louis — moving the line from its opener of Buffalo -9.5 to the more generally available -8. Our readers know that we will follow the Smart Money and especially like the big home underdogs.
St. Louis is 0-3 and has been outscored by almost 30 points per game this season. They weren’t much better last year, going just 3-13. On the other hand, Buffalo has been “fast out of the gate,” going 3-0. We often find value by taking the ugliest-looking games on the board and taking the ugly duckling. Last week, Miami showed us that on any given Sunday, anything is possible.
St. Louis Rams +8
195 Denver Broncos at 196 Kansas City Chiefs
This is our Pepto Bismol play of the day — so take a shot of Pepto and put your hard-earned cash on KC. It goes against everything you think — but that’s exactly why these types of plays are profitable in the long run. Denver has started the season off 3-0, while KC is 0-3. This game looks ugly and the public is piling on Denver.
Almost 3 out of 4 “regular” side bets are coming in on Denver. The large point spread might be making some betters go to teasers and parlays — where a huge, almost 90% of the bets are landing on Denver. In addition to our traditional philosophy of “betting against the public,” we like this play for several other major factors:
- KC is a huge home dog value, receiving 9.5 points.
- Traditionally strong divisional rivalry.
- We are “buying low” with KC and “selling high” with Denver.
- Note also that both teams were mediocre last year. 9.5 points is a huge amount to cover.
Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 (Skybook)
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch:
Games to Watch (6-3 = 66.7%)
- Oakland Raiders +7.5 SportsInteraction
- St. Louis Rams +8
- Kansas City Chiefs +9.5 Skybook
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports MarketWatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools. I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports MarketWatch.
Enjoy the games!
- Daniel Fabrizio