NFL Marketwatch Week 8 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 8
10/26/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of Sports Insights, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 8

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 7 only had a couple of big decisions for the sportsbooks. It seems the league parity is making it tough for sports bettors to pound favorites, since every Sunday most of the favorites fail to cover. The big decisions were on the Sunday Night game which went the way of sportsbooks, and the Monday Night game which went the way of The Public. Most sportsbooks reported a profitable Sunday. The Monday Night decision wiped out some of Sunday’s gains. But Indy winning in a blowout and the game failing to go over helped break up a lot of Teaser and Parlay action which helped the sportsbooks stay positive for the week.

The Public posted their sixth consecutive losing week. Sports Insights analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-2. Remember when you factor in “the juice”, going .500 is losing. For the season that makes the Public 23-32-4 = 42.5%. Sports Insights Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, going 2-0-1 last weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 12-8-1 = 60.0%.

View Last Week’s Column
*Source: Sports Insights

Looking Ahead to this Week
NFL Week 8 is shaping up to have some major decisions. We anticipate Indy, NY Giants, San Diego, and New Orleans to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as the Public continues to pound Indy and the NY Giants. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 8 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears

Odds makers at the sportsbooks we contact tell us that “sharp money” on Detroit is moving the line from Chicago -5.5 to -5.0 – with some books moving to -4.5. Sports Insights’ exclusive betting percentages confirm that “smart money” is on the Lions – with about 60% of the bets coming in on Chicago – while the line is moving in the opposite direction.

As usual, we’ll take the side of the sharps and sportsbooks – and like to be “contrarian investors” by “Betting Against the Public.” Detroit can put points on the board – and the Bears just aren’t the same team they were a year or two ago.

Detroit Lions +5

Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers

We see “value” for the Carolina Panthers in several ways. Firstly, our readers know that we like to “sell on good news.” The Colt’s strong performance on Monday Night Football against a strong Jacksonville team solidified the Colts as a huge “Public” team.

At the time of writing, a whopping 90% of bets were coming in on the Colts. Huge public money has moved the line from Indy -6 to -7 in some places. It is possible that we could see -7.5 at game time. That’s HUGE value: 1 or 1.5 points – right at a key number of 7.

Another factor that could come into play is that Carolina is coming off a “bye” week – while Indy played on Monday (and has a short week). We’ll grab the value!

Carolina Panthers +7   (

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tampa Bay Bucs

In this match-up, we see value in “buying on bad news.” The Jacksonville Jaguars had a poor showing on Monday Night Football. As a result, the Public is betting against Jax. 60% of the bets are coming in on Tampa Bay.

Even so, the line moved from TB -5 to -3.5. This is a tell-tale sign that sharps are also buying Jax on bad news. Jax is a physical team built to run the football. Running the football will help rookie QB Quinn Gray in the absence of QB David Garrard. We’ll buy Jax on bad news and join the smart money.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 

So, here’s a wrap-up of Sports Insights analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 8.

Games to Watch (12-8-1)
Detroit Lions +5
Carolina Panthers +7    (
Jacksonville Jaguars +4   (

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to Sports Insights for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio
Sports Insights