NFL Marketwatch Week 7 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 7
10/19/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 7

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 6 was flat for the sports betting industry with most sportsbooks reporting retaining less than 1% of their handle. A couple of big decisions Arizona, Tampa, and Minnesota went the sportsbook way, while the Public was helped out by Philly, New England continuing to roll, and given a gift in the form of the New York Giants pounding Atlanta on Monday Night Football.

The Public posted their fifth consecutive losing week. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-4. Remember when you factor in “the juice”, going .500 is losing. For the season that makes the Public 21-30-4 = 41.1%. Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, posting another 2-1 weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 10-8 = 55.6%.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate Washington, New England, Pittsburg, and Indy to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as the Public continues to pound Indy and New England…and any team playing Arizona, Atlanta, Miami, or Buffalo…proving once again its not how you’re playing, it’s who your playing. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 7 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Even with about two out of every three bets coming in on Baltimore, the line is weakening on the key number of -3. The opening line of this game was Balt -3 -111 at Pinnacle. Even with the majority of bets on the Ravens, sharp money was moving the line towards Buffalo.

Recent line action has Pinnacle now at only Balt -3 -105, so we can tell that some larger, sharper, money is coming in on Buffalo. Other factors on the Buffalo side include:

• Home Dog
• Coming off Bye week
• Buffalo has a good young QB

Buffalo Bills +3

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys

Our sources within the sportsbook industry tell us that “sharps” are buying the Vikings at +10 and +9.5 – moving the line down to +9 in some places. The majority of bets are coming in on America’s Team – but the line is STILL moving down. This is confirmation that the big money is on the dog in this game.

Minny is coming off a big win over the Bears. In addition, the Vikings, in rookie running back Adrian Peterson – have a game-breaking player. The Public is on the Cowboys – but we’ll take the side of the sportsbooks, and especially the “smart money.” There is still a + 10 out there and we’ll take it.

Minnesota Vikings +10   (

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles

The past few years, the Chicago Bears had their trademark “ferocious defense” back. Today, the Bears’ defense isn’t quite as dominating – and as a result, it seems like everyone is turning on them. The media is pounding the Da Bears’ defense and the team’s demise.

We feel that Chicago is still a good team – and that the Philadelphia Eagles, in fact, are very suspect. Last week, Chicago lost a tough, close game mainly due to four turnovers and several big plays. The Eagles, on the other hand, squeaked by a mediocre Jets squad.

Getting +5 for a team that can hold its opponent to 10 points on a good day – is a good value. We’ll “buy” Chicago on recent “bad news.”

Chicago Bears +6 (

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 7.

Games to Watch (10-8)
Buffalo Bills +3 +105 (
Minnesota Vikings +10  (
Chicago Bears +6 (

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio