NFL Marketwatch Week 6 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 6
10/12/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 6

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 5 continued the sportsbook industry’s streak of profitable Sundays. All the big decisions went the way of sportsbook. Green Bay and New Orleans losing outright, plus Baltimore failing to cover broke up a lot of junk (Teaser/Parlay bets) on Sunday. The door was slammed shut on the Public on Monday Night when the heavily-bet Dallas Cowboys won in dramatic fashion but failed to cover.

The Public posted their fourth consecutive losing week. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 2-4-1. For the season that makes the Public 17-26-4. Games to Watch analysis continued its positive momentum, posting a 2-1 weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 8-7.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate New England, Cincinnati, Tennessee, and the New York Giants to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as the Public looks to recoup loses from the last couple of Sundays. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 6 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a good match-up that is distorted by the Public’s love of offense. Houston, with its 7th best passing offense, started the season well at 2-0 – before dropping a relatively close game versus the Colts, losing 30-24. Although a loss, that showing vs. Indy caused the Public to notice the Texans.

Meanwhile, Jacksonville has quietly built a 3-1 record based on its defense. The Jaguars dominate the line of scrimmage. They have given up a stingy 41 points in four games and are improving every week. On the other hand, although Houston won last week, they barely beat a struggling Miami squad.

Two out of every three bets are coming in on Houston, but sharp money is holding the line at Jacksonville -6.5. We will “Bet Against the Public” and take the side of the smart money as well as the sportsbooks.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5

Tennessee Titans vs Tampa Bay Bucs

When a line looks “soft” (meaning it looks too good to be true!), it’s often a sign to go “the other way.” This is a good contrarian indicator that is confirmed by SportsInsights’ exclusive Betting Percentages. Almost 75% of the bets placed are coming in on Tennessee. The Public loves Vince Young and sees The Titans as a potential powerhouse.

We like Tampa Bay as a good value play. The Bucs lost big to Indy and are banged up in the Running Back position. However, it’s their defense that is going to win this game, not their offense. Tampa’s fast defense should be able to contain Vince Young and bring our readers a win. We’ll take Tampa Bay -2.5.

Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5  ( or

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots

This game is an example where our readers might feel queasy going with the “Sports MarketWatch” play. Dallas is relatively new to the “powerhouse” club and looked horrible on Monday Night Football.

On the other hand, an “angered” and motivated Patriot team is scorching the rest of the NFL by an average of almost 24 points per game! That’s not a typo; New England has outscored its opponents 182-65 in five games.

That kind of performance gets attention. And a lot of it! This game will be the most lopsided-bet game of the week, with almost 90% of the action on the Patriots. Public money has pounded New England from -4 to -6. You’re getting an extra 2 points.

We like that kind of value as well as Dallas as a good, solid “Home Dog” value. Let’s “buy” Dallas on its weak Monday Night performance, and sell a super high Patriot team. A sick stomach often means a good contrarian, value play.

Dallas Cowboys +6 (

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 5.

Games to Watch (8-7)
Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5
Dallas Cowboys +6

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio