NFL Marketwatch Week 5 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 5
10/5/2007  11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketplace – NFL Week 5

Recapping Last Week

NFL Week 4 witnessed the sportsbook industry swing back to profitability. For the books, every Sunday comes down to breaking up Teasers and Parlays. It seemed like all the big games went the sportsbooks’ way. Atlanta getting their first win, Arizona stunning Pittsburgh, and KC shocking San Diego – were major contributors to a profitable Sunday for the sportsbooks. The majority of Teasers and Parlays included at least one of those games.

The Public posted their third consecutive losing week. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public went 4-5. For the season that makes the Public 15-22-3. Games to Watch analysis bounced back in a big way and swept the board, posting a 3-0 weekend. We’re just about out of the basement and positioned for a big October. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 6-6.

View Last Week’s Column

Looking Ahead to this Week
We anticipate New England, New York Giants, Dallas, and Green Bay to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Look for handle sizes to remain strong as betting accounts are still flush with profits from Week 1 and 3. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 5 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburg Steelers

Part of being a successful sports investor is seeking value. In this case, we feel that Pittsburgh is an excellent value at home. It’s not often that you can buy THE STEELERS on “bad news” – but this weekend you can, due to their tough loss last week to Arizona.

One additional interesting twist is that Troy Polamalu and Hines Ward are both listed as “questionable” for this week’s game. We believe they will both play Sunday, so we would grab the Steelers minus the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5  ( -5.5)

New York Jets vs New York Giants

In “The Sports MarketWatch,” we often harp on obtaining good value and being a contrarian. In this match-up, the two New York teams are seemingly going in opposite directions. The Giants manhandled the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football – following a solid victory the week before. The Jets, meanwhile, lost to the lowly Buffalo Bills.

We also have classic evidence of “sharp” money on the Jets, with Olympic opening at the Giants -3.5 and moving to the Giants -3 despite 85% of the bets being placed on the Jets. We’ll tag along with the sharps. Let’s buy the Jets on bad news, sell the Giants on good news – and expect the New York rivalry to make this even more intense than a divisional match-up.

New York Jets +3.5

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Green Bay and the old veteran, (now a crowd and PUBLIC favorite!) Brett Favre, are commanding 5 out of every 6 bets placed! The contrarian in us says, “Sell high!”

Even with the number of bets coming in overwhelmingly on “The Pack,” our contacts within the sports betting industry say that sharp money is holding the line steady at 3.5. Indeed, some books have started to move to 3. There’s still plenty of Chicago +3.5 available. We’ll take the side of the sportsbooks and smart money AND love getting more than a field goal +3.5.

Chicago Bears +3.5 (

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 5.

Games to Watch (6-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
New York Jets +3.5
Chicago Bears +3.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio