NFL Marketwatch Week 3 2007-08

Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 3
9/21/2007  10:33 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio

Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!

Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 3

Recapping Last Week

All sportsbooks reported a dramatic increase in handle for NFL Week 2 resulting from a lot of Public Teams playing bad teams coupled with betting accounts flush with winnings from NFL Week 1. The line manger at 5Dimes put it best, “$50 players became $150 players overnight.” What seems so easy in NFL Week 1 (betting favorites) came back to bite the Public in NFL Week 2.

NFL Week 2 went the way of the sportsbooks. Most sportsbooks reported retaining between 4-6% of their handle…more than making up for Week 1’s losses. analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the Public posted a dismal 2-11 record, and for the season 9-13. Games to Watch analysis bounced back, posting a 2-1 weekend. Overall, that makes the Games to Watch column 2-4.

View Last Week’s Column


We anticipate Indy, Dallas, New England, and Denver to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Visit to view LIVE wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.

NFL Week 3 Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans

There is little doubt in the sportsbook industry that this will be one of the biggest games of the weekend. The Public loves betting last year’s Super Bowl winner and Indy’s explosive offense make them an attractive pick to novice sports bettors.

A lot of sharp books opened up at Indy -5 and -5.5 and within hours retreated to -6. We’ve heard reports of Sharp buyback on Houston at +5.5 and +6, but the massive amount of Public money coming in on Indy is causing the line to remain Indy -6. We like Houston for a multitude of reasons.

• Home Dog
• Overwhelming Public opinion on Indy
• Line Value caused by Public money pushing the line 1 pt
• Sharp buyback on Houston +6

This will be a statement game for the Houston Texans. The hometown crowd knows this and will be in a frenzy making this a playoff-type atmosphere. Indy struggled last week against Tennessee. We’re taking Houston +6.5 and looking for a rowdy home crowd and a well-balanced team to give Indy all they can handle. We show two top tier sportsbooks, and both offering Houston +6.5.

Houston +6.5 (SIA or

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

New England made a statement last week against San Diego that – cheating or not – they are the best team in the NFL. We’re looking for the Patriots to be flat this week coming off an exhausting and emotional week of intense media coverage and scrutiny – brought on by last week’s signal-stealing media circus. Buffalo is a divisional rival that is hungry for a win. There is a reason you seldom see 17 point spreads in the NFL. And we’re taking the points to show you why. There is a lot of value in a 17 pt spread no matter who’s playing. We’re taking Buffalo +17.

Buffalo +17 ( or

Seattle Seahawks vs Cincinnati Bengals

If there is one thing we learned from last week, it is that Cincinnati can’t play defense. The “mighty” Cleveland Browns torched Cincy for 51 points. Imagine what a well-coached offensive minded team will do? And look who’s playing Cincy this week…Seattle. Seattle is a well-balanced team with a potent offense and a tough defense. We like the fact the Public still likes Cincy. There’s nothing more exciting to a novice sports bettor than seeing a team put up 45 points even if they lose. Cincy is receiving a little more than 70% of the bets placed on this game BUT the line is moving toward Seattle. This is an excellent indicator of Sharp money on Seattle. We always follow the Sharp money!

Seattle -3.5

So, here’s a wrap-up of analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 3.

Games to Watch (2-4)
Houston +6.5
Buffalo +17
Seattle -3.5

It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.

I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.

Enjoy the games!

Daniel Fabrizio