Sports Marketwatch – Early Moves Edition
NFL Week 2
9/14/2007 11:01 AM EST
by Daniel Fabrizio
Welcome to this week’s edition of the Sports Marketwatch, where Daniel Fabrizio, founder of SportsInsights.com, gives sports fans unprecedented insight into the NFL point-spread market. If you ever wanted to know what was really happening on the sportsbook side, you now have an all-access pass with Sports Marketplace!
Every week he speaks directly with the line managers at some of the sports betting industry’s largest sportsbooks about which games the public is chasing and the Sharps are pounding. Dan takes a look at what’s in store for this week in the NFL.
Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2
Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week of pre-season. The 1pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville failing to cover and a lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay action. The 4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an ugly day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the doors on Monday.
Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regulars season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research.
SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face going 0-3.
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This Week’s NFL Action
This week, we’re hoping that “our dogs” are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:
• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press
We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Each one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the bets placed. Visit SportsInsights.com to view live wagering statistics from multiple online sportsbooks.
NFL Sports Marketwatch – Games to Watch
Dallas Cowboys vs Miami Dolphins
I circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to be a soft line, which is causing the early Public money to pound Dallas. The line has moved from Dallas -3 to -4. Every week there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to be soft lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If it looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds makers in Vegas know what they are doing. The line should be-3 but Square money has pushed the line to -4 giving the value better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.
Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their manhandling of the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to fire. Watching the highlights and listening to the media machine, you’d hear nothing but “America’s Team” is back.
The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square money on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly retreated to -3.5, with a lot of Square sportsbooks shading the line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke with believed they could have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of Dallas action.
Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in on Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the scores. Unfortunately, I’m still waiting for my advance copy of Monday’s sports section. We’re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog the Public money has given us.
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game plan to beat them. We like the Tennessee Titans for the same reasons we’re taking the Miami Dolphins.
• Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)
• Home dog (+7.5)
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)
The early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog value getting +7.5. Tennessee picked up right where they left off last season. They showed a lot of grit going into Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most notably Bodog.com. We’re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for our Home Dogs to start barking!
Tennessee +7.5 (NewBodog.com)
Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
The question is not “how good is Cincy” but rather “how bad is Cleveland?” Frequent readers of this column know that every week you need bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but try putting your money where your mouth is. Who in their right mind would put money on Cleveland this week…no matter what line they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias that makes Cleveland an attractive play. It’s about identifying value. Over the course of an entire season, continually getting an extra half point such as +7 instead of +6.5 – will add an extra few points to your winning percentage. This can be the difference between long-term winning and losing.
I’m taking Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is betting against them.
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.
Games to Watch (0-3)
It should be another exciting NFL Weekend. Keep Sports Marketwatch picks handy and your browser pointed to SportsInsights.com for the latest real-time updates, using our exclusive Sports Investing tools.
I’ll be back next Friday with the new edition of the Sports Marketwatch.
Enjoy the games!